Random Thoughts In My Random Mind

"Holy Sh!t": Plot to kill the elected prime minister of SVG? Hired assassins arrested? This is serious, mindblowing stuff. I weep for SVG. Its one thing when a yankee nutjob takes a shot at a congresswoman in Arizona. It’s a whole ‘nother thing when criminals are hiring hitmen to kill your head of government. The details discussed by the Prime Minister were too serious and specific to make up: He's saying someone tried to kill him, that they have the guy in jail, and that a second killer is at large. This changes everything in Vincy politics. Seriously. Think about it for a second.

Stop The Friggin Presses!: How is this assassination plot not the biggest story of the year in SVG right now?!? I look at the Searchlight, and its tucked on the back page underneath a story about some stillborn NDP demonstration. Really? “NDP HOLDS DEMONSTRATION. (Oh, and by the way, someone hired multiple hitmen to murder the prime minister).” My buddy Kenton Chance reports it with the same importance as when the PM's claim that gov’t workers waste electricity. (Kudos to Abeni in the blogosphere for zeroing in on the importance of this). Am I missing something? This is a frikkin MURDER FOR HIRE PLOT!!

* * *

 

Didn’t listen to all of the debate on the estimates, so I don’t wanna give a review of it. Don’t think I’ll hear much of the budget debates either. Here are my limited instant reactions, for what they’re worth:

"Wash, Rinse, Repeat": more of the same from Ralph and Arnhim. I’ve been following this thing now since the last couple years of the Mitchell/Eustace era. I swear, if I hear Eustace say “amortization and sinking fund” ONE MORE TIME, I might snap. But if you heard them last year, you heard them this year. Wake me when they’re through trying to convince me to (a) don’t worry, be happy or (b) panic, cuz the economy is going to hell in a hand basket.

"The Vision Thing": Listening to the debate, I was struck at the shallowness and superficiality of comments on both sides (and the useless anecdotes that have nothing to do with the estimates). But more than that, I couldn’t discern an underlying opposition philosophy (I heard more of the opposition reps. than the gov't people). Isn’t the NDP the party of big business, low taxes, trickle-down economics, Washington Consensus and small government? If so, Terrance, Anesia and “the major” didn’t get the memo. They were the ones bemoaning the plight of the little guy, beseeching the ULP to spend MORE, and for the government to play a LARGER role on development/social services, etc. I mean, Leacock was actually asking the STATE to rebuild and repair PRIVATE roads in Green Hill!! Last year, when the budget was huge, the NDP was pretty solid in saying it was too large and bloated, and that difficult economic times demanded more austerity. Now, here we are with a much smaller austerity budget, and some of them are complaining that it’s not bigger. Hmmm.

"A Senator is Either a Wannabe or a Has-Been": I only heard senators Vynette, Anesia, and Julian debate. Julian was Julian. Same ole, same ole. But, like most political junkies, I wanted to hear from VinnyVee and Anesia. I was grading them on two different curves: For their presentations to be successful, Vynette had to sound like she wasn’t the village idiot, and Anesia had to sound like she wasn’t a borderline mental patient.

 

Only Anesia passed her test. 

 

Going into the debate, I actually thought that Vynette (extrovert, lawyer, loudmouth, longtime PRO) would do better than Anesia (civil servant, self-righteous, socially inhibited) the first time out. Boy was I wrong. Vynette was scattershot, random,  unprepared and uninformed. Just ‘cuz you spend a lot of time on facebook, it doesn’t make you an IT expert, Vinny, and it showed. I’d give her a “D” grade. 

 

Anesia, on the other hand, gets a solid “B-“. She was extremely light on substance – just tinkering on the edges of the estimates, suggesting a ‘lil more money here, a ‘lil more activity there – but she nailed the tone. She sounded compassionate, coherent, calm, and most of all, SANE (couple green verbs & subjects, but I’m putting them down to nerves). She also sounded like she sat down and thought about her presentation for more than 5 minutes, whereas Vynette sounded like she was making it up as she went along. And when Anesia implored the boys to stop the crosstalk so that she “could hear herself think,” she sounded like the most mature person in the room.

"Rules are Made to be Enforced": Is Ralph Gonsalves the only person in the Parliament who knows the standing orders/rules of procedure? After Eustace got used to the idea that he was still in opposition, he bragged that his new team would run rings around the other side. He promised vim and vigour. He pledged knowledge and competence. Then the first thing they do is come in and ask the wrong people the wrong questions. Jeez. Learn the damn rules already. Most you have been in Parliament over a decade now.

But its not just the NDP: our venerable, veteran Speaker of the House was flatfooted when Godwin Friday started an (procedurally inappropriate) argument about the minutes of the previous sitting. Gonsalves had to get up and set them both straight. Is he the only guy with a copy of the rules? Can we get copies to everyone else?

"If a major Blows His Trumpet, But Nobody Hears Him, Does He Make a Sound?": I know I’m a politics nerd, cuz these little tactical battles tickle me: See, "the major” usually likes to speak just before Ralph wraps up. That way, he knows people will be listening, and he knows that he and Ralph will butt heads, further enhancing Leacock’s self-proclaimed stature as the only man who can handle Ralph. With the debate starting on Thursday, “the major” figured he’d be speaking on Friday, right before Ralph. You could’ve knocked him down with a feather when Gonsalves said “nah, we’ll wrap it up tonight, even if we have to go 'til midnight.”

“the major” then had a dilemma: 'If I wait to be the second-to-last speaker, everyone will be in their bed and no one will hear me. If I speak now, in the middle of all these mediocre and uninspiring people, no one might be listening anyway!' (Gonsalves doesn’t have that dilemma. He can speak at midnight, and the state radio, plus Star FM will faithfully replay his address the next day during prime time). “the major” split the difference, speaking late, but not TOO late. However, Gonsalves boycotted his performance, leaving the room to take a phone call and not coming back till the end. Without his foil on the other side, “the major” sounded flat and uninspired. I’m hoping he pulls it together for the actual budget debates. I do so enjoy his grandiloquent grandiloquence.

"NDP Locks The City": What a farce. Trucks with loudspeakers woke me up on Wednesday night, exhorting me to take to the streets to demonstrate against Gonsalves’ dictatorship. Arnhim, Friday and “the major” were on my TV, hyping me up for Roadblock Revolution: The Sequel. They even told people NOT TO SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO SCHOOL. I was told that teargas was a near-certainty. That “tens of thousands” were going to descend on Kingstown and overwhelm the government (by the way, if you’re inviting me to come demonstrate, it might not be the best idea to also promise me that I’ll get tear-gassed. It might make me think twice about coming out. I dunno, that’s just me, I guess). The NDP also requested and received police permission for a 4:30pm demonstration in Heritage Square. Wow. Big tings a gwaan.

Except… nobody turned up. Well, not NObody. When I went to work I stopped and counted exactly 89 people on the NDP side of the demonstration barrier. About 40 of those people were in their NDP gear. Both parties had a much bigger crowds for the ceremonial opening of parliament last week, and that was without loudspeakers, TV time, and Lynch’s radio hysteria. Seeing the tiny crowd, which was even smaller when I went to lunch, NDP scratched their plans for the Heritage Square rally. Not their best moment.

"Hate Mail is Funny": I wrote a letter to the editor about private criminal complaints and sent it to the Searchlight. Its something I’ve given some thought to, and while perfectly reasonable minds can disagree on this one, my opinion is that the mechanism is being abused in SVG. Reform, in my opinion, is necessary. Anyway, Searchlight printed the letter and put my email address at the end of it. Before the paper hit the street on Friday morning, my BB was already buzzing with the hate mail of rabid zealots. And when I say hate mail, I mean HATE mail. Take it easy people!

Anyway, now that I am “a cocksucking ulp hore” (Whore? Hare? Hire? Shore? Bore? Who knows), I’d like to establish Roget’s Rules of Hate Mail:  

1. Blood-curdling hatred/anger is not an excuse to ignore the established rules of grammar, spelling and punctuation. I wanna be scared, I really do, but if I have to stop to figure out what you’re trying to say, it ruins the moment;

2. Threats have to have some basis in reality. If you don’t know who I am, I doubt you can box me when you see me, deport me, or have me fired;

3. Threats, or derogatory descriptions of me, should at least be anatomically possible. Otherwise they’re just funny;

4. If everything I’ve ever written is “stupid bullshit,” maybe you should stop reading everything I’ve ever written. I mean, that’s what I’d do.

"A Million Here, a Million There, Pretty Soon You’re Talking REAL Money": Countries around the region and the world are cutting back. Last year, the international word was “stimulus.” Now its “austerity.” Look at England’s budget. At Barbados’. At Germany’s. At Jamaica’s. At St. Kitts'. At Greece's. Our budget has also shrunk, so clearly there is some belt tightening on our end too. But where is it? I still don’t have a good handle on this budget. There don’t seem to be any attention-grabbing cuts – taxes didn’t go up (did they?), bus fare is steady (isn’t it?), jobs aren’t being cut (are they?), wages aren’t being frozen (right?). But, the money went somewhere, right? Will someone, on either side, tell me what this budget means for ME? Or is the budget just a new scenic backdrop for the ongoing pissing match between Ralph and Arnhim?

We’ll see next week, I guess.

Not a Good week for the NDP

(VP’s Note: I was writing an interminably long blog about people who need to decide ASAP if they are gonna jump headlong into active Vincy politics or continue to dip their big toe in the water. (Yes Jomo, Louise, Sehorn, Kenton, Camilo, Grant, Adonal, Ellsworth, Rochelle, Ronnie, Marlon, Hans, Fitz, Allan, Nichola et al – I’m talking to you!)

The blog was so damn long and boring that it began to bore me. Now, If I’m boring myself – and I’m my biggest fan – what’s it gonna do to you, my two faithful readers?

Of course, having more or less written it, I’m still gonna inflict it upon you. And no, I’m not gonna edit it. That’s what journalists do, not bloggers. SVG Epiphany told me to blog to my heart’s content.

However, I won’t test your patience just yet. Consider this the heavy appetizer before the heaping serving of overcooked meat & potatoes:)

Not a Good week for the NDP

Whenever a political party loses an election, it naturally goes through some soul searching, some upheaval, and some general unpleasantness. That unpleasantness increases exponentially if the political party truly believes that it should have won the election, as is the case with the NDP.

So in that sense, the fact that the NDP hasn’t had the best week is completely expected and understandable. And no one is gonna remember this bad week years from now when the next elections are called. In fact, if you’re gonna have bad weeks, its probably better to get them out of the way ASAP, rather than having them two weeks before election day (as was also the case with the NDP).

That being said, no amount of caveats or rationalisations can disguise one cold hard fact: This was an awful week for the NDP. Just how awful can be summed up in three words: Linton, Leacock and Arnhim.

Let’s take a look at the newspapers, shall we?



LINTON

I’ve discussed this before. Linton has taken to the news media to decry the fact that he was not consulted on the NDP’s choice of senators. He has told us that he, Linton, indicated his own willingness to serve as a senator.

Let’s see his quotes from the 30th December Vincentian, shall we?:

He explained that there is a Central Committee and an Executive within the NDP and that he was of the view that both Committees “really ought to have been consulted” because the NDP was a party in the House of Parliament.

Dr Lewis lamented, “In my capacity as Chairman, I am very disappointed that I have never had the privilege of knowing who those senators are until they have been announced in the public… so I know when the public knows.”

An irate Lewis blasted, “There was never any consultation of the discussion or anything of that nature. That I don’t consider a very good thing because you speak about meritocracy and democracy, but it must be practised. Charity begins at home and very often we refuse to make statements because we want to keep unity in the party, but sometimes it reaches to a stage where we need to speak out against certain things.”

“There is an eerie silence and some discussions on the issue in and around Kingstown. I was told that a letter was written to the Leader of Opposition, so people are totally disgruntled. If not about the persons selected as senators, by the decision on the matter. By the fact that there hasn’t been any collective agreement or discussion on the matter. That doesn’t all go well for democracy in our country.”

OK, OK. I know that 75% of this grumbling is because Arnhim didn’t make Linton a senator. If that had happened, Linton’s would have been happy and silent, even if no one was consulted. But when the “irate” Chairman of the NDP is blasting the President of the NDP as autocratic, non-democratic and non-transparent, its not gonna be a good week for your party.



LEACOCK

The 4th January issue of the Searchlight carried an article inexplicably headlined “’I remain faithful’: Leacock says his loyalty lies with Eustace as leader.” I’ve gotta think that that was a sarcastic headline, because lets take a look at what “the major” actually had to say (I’ve added some helpful emphasis to make my obvious point more so):

“AS WE SPEAK AT THIS TIME, I still remain faithful to Mr. Eustace’s leadership and I still hold firm to the view THAT HE WHO MUST LEAD MUST DEMONSTRATE AN ABILITY TO FOLLOW”

“IF THE OCCASION ARISES WHERE I MUST LEAD THE NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY, I would ideally want that to be done with the blessings of not just the constitution of the New Democratic Party, but the support of Mr. Eustace.”

“I HEAR THE CALLS FROM THE PUBLIC, I hear the calls from the institutions, and I hear the calls regionally and internationally. But I still hold the view AT THE MOMENT, that we don’t need to be fratricidal or suicidal for that matter and the best thing is to continue to work in union with Mr. Eustace AT THIS TIME and politics will take its course.”

OhhhKayyy then. Over the course of a mere four sentences, “the major” needed two “at this times” and one “at the moment” to qualify his support of Eustace! Followed by his acknowledgement of calls from the public and institutions around the world for Eustace to go. Followed by him entertaining the thought of leading the party, WITH EUSTACE’S SUPPORT. Preceded by him and citing his own ‘faithfulness’ as one of his qualifications for leadership.

(Lets not forget Leacock’s own churlish and childish display of self promotion during the ceremonial opening of Parliament. That didn’t improve the NDP’s week any)

Wow. So the Chairman of the party and its First Vice President, who’s also an MP, are  publicly out for your head, Brother Arnhim. What do you have to say for yourself?



ARNHIM

Lets take a trip down memory lane. All the way back to… three weeks ago. The election has just ended, and the ULP has squeaked home with a narrow 8-7 victory.

Or has it?

Arnhim Eustace takes to the airwaves with a terse but crystal-clear message: The ULP cheated, we can prove it, and we will prove it in court.

“NDP CRIES FOUL: Eustace: We will not accept this election result” screamed the 17th December Searchlight

“EUSTACE: ‘2010 ELECTIONS NOT FAIR’” blared the Vincentian of the same week

“UNFAIR ELECTIONS ROB VINCENTIANS OF A BRIGHTER FUTURE, SAYS EUSTACE” chimed in The News.

Eustace had “picked up the scent of cheating,” he said. “We will not accept these election results.”

Specifically, Arnhim pledged: “We will, in addition to the proposed criminal proceedings, file elections petitions challenging the return of identified members of the Parliament on the grounds of fraud, breach of the Representation of the People Act and the Election Laws of this country.”

OK. Election petitions. Good move. Nobody likes cheating.

Imagine my surprise, then, to open this week’s Searchlight to see this headline: “No challenge to December 13 Election results.” Imagine my shock to see  Allan Cruickshank, General Secretary of the NDP, confirming that there would be no election petitions. In fact, said Cruickshank, “any matters that will be dealt with now are CIVIL matters.” What?? No election petitions, and no criminal proceedings either?? Just civil matters?? Shock!! Horror!!

According to this week’s Searchlight, the deadline for filing election petitions has already elapsed. According the Organisation of American States, which sent an observer mission to SVG “the election was conducted with minimal incidents and complied with international standards for inclusiveness and transparency.”

Sir James, who trusts not even God in electoral matters, has been deafeningly silent.

So… OK… wait… hold on: After swearing blind that the ULP teef the election, and that he would bring election petitions and legal hellfire to challenge ULP parliamentarians, Arnhim just show up in Parliament like nothing happen and settle down quietly for another slog on the opposition benches? WTF?!? I wanna see the petitions!!

If no petitions, can we get an apology? To the nation? To the electorate? To the ULP? To me, personally, for the 12 minutes of my life that I wasted listening to your sore loser sour grapes?

See, everyone is talking about how Gonsalves needs to be a statesman, and his own Trumanesque views on that matter. But what about Arnhim?

Newsflash: Arnhim Eustace has yet to concede the election to the ULP.

No, not THIS election. The 2005 Election!! Seriously. He made the same claims of cheating, promised election petitions, and they never materialised. From 2005-2010, Eustace NEVER formally conceded the election.

Now, 2010, same khaki pants.

Two successive elections. Both declared clean by international observers. Both with no election petitions filed in accordance with the law. Yet both not conceded by the defeated opposition leader. What adjective do you use to describe that behaviour? Statesmanlike? Kinder and Gentler? Defender of Democracy? Or just plain dumb?

When your blood is in the water, your own angry/ambitious party apparatchiks are turning on you, and you’re struggling to hang on; you need to wrap yourself in the warm, protective bosom of the man on the street. You do this by appearing to be a man of your word. Honourable. Beyond reproach. Above pettiness.

If you don’t do this, the man on the street keeps his bosoms to himself, and leaves you to your fate at the hands of the aforementioned apparatchiks.

Way to go, Arnhim. Literally.

It’s beyond, Arnhim, though. Bitter is not a good look for the NDP at this point in time. Plus, if they (1) haven’t learned from their empty 2005 bombast and (2) can’t keep their promise to “defend our democracy” with the appropriate legal action, how can the electorate take them seriously to deliver on any other promises?

Cocoa, anyone?

Instant reaction to the first post-election Parliament

The first parliament since the new elections is now in the books. It ended about 15 minutes ago. In some ways, it was just like the parliament that preceded it: Ralph is still Prime Minister, Arnhim is still leader of the opposition, and Leacock is still making an ass of himself. In other ways, it was very different: Two woman senators on the opposition side, a new butcher of the English language (David Browne) to join Clayton on the government side, and a new insane person (Anesia) to join Cummings on the opposition benches.

 

Here are my instant opinions on what just transpired (instant opinions subject to instantly change with reflection and/or rum shop debate):

THUMBS UP:
To Ralph Gonsalves for calling a “snap parliament” to force the NDP to name its senators before they were ready. Dec. 29 was about as early as possible for parliament to sit following the elections and after Christmas. I have it on good authority that when Arnhim heard the date for parliament, he contacted the Clerk of the House to ask what was the hurry, why not wait till the new year?
 

The hurry was that Ralph wanted to force Arnhim’s hand – to make him name his senators without time to consult and while the party was still in turmoil, and then sit back and watch the dissension in the NDP ranks.
 

Have you seen the midweek Searchlight yet? Loser Linton Lewis is in there telling the press that he, the chairman of the NDP, was not consulted on the senators, that he only knew when the public knew, and that a number of his NDP colleagues were also in the dark. Linton also sulkily refused to comment on the quality of the appointments themselves.
 

Warning: This party will self destruct in 10, 9, 8 . . .

 

To Arnhim Eustace for naming two women as senators. I’m not a fan of either one. In fact, I’m not sure Anesia is sane (then again, with Cummings moving up to the ranks of MP, the NDP had to fulfill its quota of at least one crazy senator at all times). My views on Vynette are well known. But for gender balance reasons, it was a good move. And, honestly, they’re brighter than at least half of the people in that House, plus they’ll both make for great theater/comedy in the parliament.  

 

Historically, if memory serves, the NDP has had only male senators during the ULP era (Burns, Rasum, Leacock, Cummins), while the ULP had three women (Fife, Forde, Young). In one fell swoop, Arnhim has narrowed that score to 3-2.  

 

Arnhim was under pressure to make two picks (a) with limited time; (b) who wouldn’t challenge his shaky grip on the party’s leadership; and (c) who wouldn’t make the NDP rank and file have a “wtf?!” moment. Based on what he had to choose from, they were solid picks.  

Also, in picking two Arnhim loyalists, he showed that, for now at least, he’s still in charge of the NDP. Mitchell already said that he doesn’t think young women should be involved in politics – they should stay home and raise a family. So you know they’re not Mitchell picks. Linton is still on the outside looking in, so you know his faction was ignored. And Leacock also thinks Anesia is too much of a loose cannon, so he had no role either. This was Arnhim flexing what’s left of his Leader of the Opposition muscle. Use it till you lose it, Arnie.
 

 

To Queen Elizabeth II for still having her royal foot on our sorry subjugated necks. Look at all those proud black people and anti-colonialists pledging loyalty to her and her heirs (or “hairs” if you’re David Browne. All of her hairs, Dave? Or just the ones on her head? How bout underarms? Pubes?). Old Queen E still running tings in SVG.

 

 

THUMBS DOWN:
To “Major” Leacock for his silly little tirade. Arnhim must have been smiling to himself as the “major” looked undeniably minor league. For those of you who have a life, let me set the scene: 

 

 After everyone gets sworn in, there is a section on the agenda called “congratulations.”
 

Ralph gets up and congratulates all the MPs and senators, wishes them well, makes a tame lil dig at Arnhim.
 

Arnhim gets up, congratulates all the MPs and senators, pledges to be a vigorous opposition, and makes a tame lil dig at Ralph.
 

Clayton gets up and congratulates some guy from Calliaqua who just turned 100 years old (inappropriate, you say? Not the right time, you say? That’s how I STAY elected, he say).
 

Then comes the “Major.”
 

Mind you, you’re supposed to be making congratulatory remarks. But Leacock is only intent on congratulating himself. He tells us how he increased the vote for NDP in Central Kingstown from x% to y% to z% over the years. He talks about how hard he struggled. He talked about his 88 year old mother and his deceased father.
 

Me, me, me. I, I, I. Congratulations to me. I did it.
 

Then he launches into some vague, class-based tirade against entitled people and aristocrats (wait, isn't the NDP the classist/elitist/aristocratic party?). He says that he won’t ask Ralph to apologise for his “vitriolic” statements during the campaign, then turns around and does exactly that: demand an apology. Ralph is shouting at him, the speaker is trying to get control, the Major isn’t yielding the floor to the speaker. Loud. Divisive. Angry.
 

Very classy, Major Leacock. How appropriate for the ceremonial first day of a new parliament.
 

NDP supporters who were calling for Arnhim’s head must have cringed. Is this the best we got?
 

 

To Arnhim for (1) nominating someone to challenge Hendrick Alexander for speaker (why? You knew you were gonna lose, and the final result – 13-9 – makes the divide look wider than the 8-7 MP balance); (2) not in any way challenging the legitimacy of the vote or the election (didn’t he have a press conference the day after the election to say that the NDP had been cheated?); and (3) for once again suggesting that he was gonna bring the government down early. Big talk Arnie. But if you can’t back it up, you sound empty. Time will tell.
 

 

To Ralph for pretending to be this beneficent wise old man when welcoming Vynette and Anesia to the parliament. Um, Comrade, is that the same “snotty nose gal” Vynette? And the same “cultist, similar to Jim Jones” Anesia? Excuse me while I LMFAO.
 

 

To Julian Francis for speaking. No other senator spoke, did they? And to do what, thank your ULP warriors and calypsonians for their part in the party’s victory? Get out of campaign mode, already. Wrong place, wrong time, wrong person.
 

 

To Linton Lewis for aforementioned bitch-fest in the Searchlight. Face it Linton, you call no shots in the NDP. None. Plus, that kinda dirty laundry should be washed indoors, buddy. And if its being taken out in public, let someone else with some authority do the washing (i.e. either Sir James or someone who actually won a damn seat). Your best bet now is to hitch your wagon to someone else and become their henchman for the next five years. Chill.

WINNERS, LOSERS, AND PREDICTIONS FROM THE 2010 GENERAL ELECTIONS

Who else went to both the Argyle super-rally and the Taurus Riley super-rally? Who else listened to both Astaphan and Lynch on talk radio? Who else went to both the ULP and the NDP’s post-election rallies? Who else is gonna stop, analyse and give you 4,000 words on the General Elections? No one but VP.

Here we go:

WINNERS

Ralph Gonsalves: One year ago, the political obituaries had been written. The referendum campaign had blown up spectacularly in his face. There were allegations of rape and sexual harassment. Lynch and NICE radio were vilifying him daily. The national economy was limping along. He was a “lame duck” Prime Minister, said the NDP. Arnhim Eustace crowed that he, Arnhim, was “the man in charge.”

What a difference a year makes.

D’ Comrade rolled the dice, jettisoning more than half of the incumbent ULP MPs (Rene Baptiste, Glen Beache, Mike Browne, Conrad Sayers, Douggie Slater, Louis Straker, Selmon Walters) plus 2005 contestant Julian Francis. Half of the new faces succeeded, and exactly half of the ULP’s eight MPs are rookies (Saboto, Agustus, Ces, Maxwell).

Like Gonsalves said after the election, “a win is a win.” And he is PM for five more years. That’s the point of the contest: to win the elections and be Prime Minister, right? He has locked down (most) of the Windward side of the island, and is reasonably well positioned for a 4th ULP term (more on that later). A win is a win. And a winner is a winner.


“Major” St Clair Leacock: Leacock is the biggest winner on the NDP side. He worked hard in his constituency for 10 years in opposition, building alliances and influencing the youth vote. He portrayed himself as the only man with the “guts” to take on Ralph Gonsalves (not the brains; not the vision; the guts. In that sense, he’s right). Better than that, the NDP’s golden child, Linton Lewis, got his but kicked again in East St. George.

Believe it or not, “Major” Leacock is now the odds-on favourite to take over the NDP after Arnhim accepts the reality of three straight defeats. Which means that Leacock will soon be 2,000 votes away from the Prime Ministership of SVG. Leacock could not have imagined a better outcome. For his personal ambitions, this result is even better than an NDP victory.

(Sidenote: I will NEVER be able to take this man seriously if he keeps calling himself “Major.” He was in the frikkin CADETS!!! He basically did marching drills! SVG has no army, but he’s a major?!? And why doesn’t anyone else who was in the cadets refer to themselves by their “military” rank? Where are all the other generals and majors and lieutenants and sergeants from the Cadets? Why don’t we refer to retired police officers by their rank? This is so dumb.)

Saboto Caesar: In 2010, there was a swing against the ULP in almost every constituency. In terms of margin of victory, every ULP victory was slimmer than the previous election. Except in Caesar’s South Central Windward. True, he only increased Selmon Walters’ 2005 margin of victory by a mere 2 votes, but he also picked up 157 votes more than Walters got. And he had to contend with literally two plane-loads of NDP voters being flown in to his constituency on the eve of election, most of whom voted in Greggs.

Saboto is also now the heir-apparent to Gonsalves’ leadership of the ULP. He’s smart, handsome, charismatic, hardworking and winner of a solid ULP stronghold. None of the other rumoured pretenders to the throne (Luke Browne, Camillo Gonsalves, Glen Beache, Rene Baptiste) can claim all five of those attributes. Right now, the only thing standing between Saboto and Ralph is Ralph himself. And Ralph seems “well pleased” with his young apprentice. Giving Saboto the Ministry of Tourism – arguably the second-most-powerful ministry in the government – is a clear indication of the Comrade’s blessing.

Clayton Burgin: Clayton has strong disagreements with verbs. And nouns. And adjectives. He didn’t have the educational pedigree of most of the 2005-2010 ULP cabinet. He didn’t seem particularly well-liked in East St. George. And he was going up against none other than Dr. Linton Lewis – heir apparent in the NDP, with the glittering sports background, academic quality, and successful business.

Guess what? In 2005, Clayton beat Linton by 700 votes. In 2010, he beat him by 692. In five years, with a national swing against the ULP, Clayton slipped a mere eight votes against a quality opponent. Give jack his jacket. The man is a winner.

Daniel Cummings: The licks Daniel Cummings put on Michelle Fife should have him jailed for assault. Quick, guess the two seats where the NDP won by the biggest margins. If you picked North and South Grenadines, you’d only be half right. Cummings beat Fife by 513 votes. Only in Bequia did the NDP do better, in terms of raw votes. West Kingstown is now a safe NDP seat in the next elections. The reason for that is equal parts Cummings and Fife (more on her in the “Losers” section), but the fact is that the two NDP candidates who will worry least about their seats in the next election are Friday in Bequia and Cummings in West Kingstown.

Unfortunately, he is as mad as a hatter, so no one will seriously consider him for leadership of the NDP. Insane people don’t usually make good leaders (see Gairy, Sir Eric; Hitler, Adolf; Caligula, Caesar).

Julian Francis: After the referendum, Julian Francis got demoted. He was stripped of his ministerial post and asked to go back to what he does best, which is organizing rallies and mobilizing crowds. He was given 12 months to revive a dispirited base of support, and he was given no money to do it. Look around town to see how badly the ULP was outspent in this campaign: Hardly any posters. No foreign entertainment. No fireworks. No cool ladies t-shirts and sleeveless tees and backpacks like last time (in fact, some really cheap shirts, and not a lot of them either).

But three of the four biggest crowds of the campaign were ULP crowds (Victoria Park twice, Argyle once – the fourth was the NDP/Taurrus Riley event in Victoria Park). That’s not an indication of support (remember the biggest crowd of the referendum was the YES Vote/Busy Signal event), but it is an indication of energy. Francis got the base out to vote. And the ULP base is still a bit bigger than the NDP base.

The grumblings are already starting about his reappointment to a ministerial post. Fair enough, he’s not a likable guy. But in a reduced cabinet of limited experience, you need some people who just get things done. Francis has proven that he’s one of those people.

The Grenadines: If you wanna know how pissed I am that the Grenadines are two seats, take a browse through some of my previous posts on this blog. Simply put, there are not enough people in the Grenadines to justify it being two seats. Which means that a Grenadine vote is worth almost twice as much as a mainland vote. Which is unfair. And unconstitutional. And wrong. As far as I'm concerned, the ULP didn't win 8-7, they won 8-6. Looks kinda different, doesn't it?

But here we are again, counting the Grenadines as two instead of one. So they win again.

Check this out: Godwin Friday won the Northern Grenadines in a romp, with 80% of the vote. But Friday’s TOTAL VOTES (2,019) would not have earned him a victory in ANY SEAT ON THE MAINLAND. In fact, seven losing candidates on the mainland got MORE votes than Friday got in his landslide victory! (the losers of East Kingstown, Central Kingstown, South Leeward, North Leeward, East St. George, West St. George and Central Leeward).

Make it worse: Terrance Ollivere’s comfortable 63% victory in the Southern Grenadines came on the strength of a mere 1,112 votes!! Excuse me, but WTF?!? On the mainland, only one of the 26 ULP or NDP candidates got less than 1,112 votes, and that was the NDP’s sacrificial lamb in the Comrade’s constituency.

Put it another way: About 4,300 people voted in the North and South Grenadines combined. If “the Grenadines” was one constituency, those 4,300 people would be the third-smallest constituency in the country (11th out of 14 constituencies).

But, somehow, 4,300 people in the Grenadines get to elect two representatives to Parliament. But the 5,200 voters in East St. George only get one. Ditto the 5,000 in South Leeward.

Crazy. But as long as it continues, the Grenadines win.

Que Pasa: Que Pasa backed the NDP hard in this campaign. Mucho dinero was distributed by him and his minions, often with the faces of dead American presidents. I dunno if its cuz Que Pasa hates Ralph, or Julian, or ULP policy; or if the NDP had promised to make his tax and money laundering issues go away if they were elected. Let's just say that the man spent a lot of his money and used a lot of his time to get rid of the ULP.

Que Pasa’s zone of influence runs up the western coast of St. Vincent from West Kingstown to North Leeward. Guess what? The NDP won three of the four seats on that coast – up from zero in the previous election. Was that all QP’s doing? Of course not. But he helped.

In North Leeward, particularly, QP and the underlings of the extradited Dexter Chance did a great job in mobilizing the ganja farmers and drug runners who usually sit-out election events.

In North Leeward, Jerrol Thompson actually got 71 MORE votes than he got in 2005, when he won the seat. But Patel Matthews grew by 187 votes. A ridiculous 114 of those 187 new votes came from tiny polling stations in Chateaubelair and Petit Bordel. Guess where the drug barons’ stronghold is?

Que Pasa is now a major player in Vincy politics. And that scares me. It scares me a lot.

Vincy Patriot: After the referendum, I was questioning my powers of deduction, analysis and prophecy. After all, it was yours truly who famously said before the referendum: “No way in hell Arnhim gets 51%. Thirty-five percent? Likely. Forty percent? Possible. Fifty-one? Never in a million years.”

But who came roaring back after the referendum? VP, that’s who! 12 months ago – a full year before the election, and back when everyone was predicting a 13-2 ULP defeat, I dropped this tasty nugget on ya’ll:

“So, if everything broke in the ULP’s favour in the next 12 months, and they got their apathetic voters energised, they’re looking at an 8-7 win.”

As it was written, so was it done. I even picked the exact seats that could/would go to ULP and NDP! VP’s powers of prophecy restored!

And for ye doubting Thomases, I also predicted (a) a Nov/Dec election date; (b) that the only “referendum reform” that the ULP would attempt is the increase to 17 constituencies; (c) that the ULP would go with fresh faces while the NDP would go with old veterans; and that (d) Julian Francis would “whip the party machinery into fighting shape in time for the silly season.”

From now on, you can call me Vincy Nostradamus* I’m like Sex Panther cologne: 60% of the time, I work every time!

* past performance not indication of future success.


LOSERS

Arnhim Eustace: I dunno how to tell you this Arnhim, but its over. You haven’t come to terms with that yet, and that’s OK. It’s been a long hard battle. But at some point, your NDP buddies are gonna have an intervention for you. They’re gonna give you a 12-step program. The first step is gonna be acceptance of the fact that you’ll never be PM. The 11th step is gonna be your relinquishing the post of Leader of the Opposition. And the 12th step is you stepping aside in East Kingstown for either Linton Lewis or Louise Mitchell.

Arnhim ran an awful campaign. He had the money. He had the referendum result. He had a global financial crisis. He had voter discontent. All he needed to do was to harness all of it. To ride the wave.

But damned if he didn’t find a way to screw it up. He ceded control to Mitchell. To SCL. To Lynch. He talked “kinder and gentler” out of one side of his mouth while simultaneously descending into gutter politics. He had some members of his team spouting “meritocracy” while others promised to “christen NDP pickney first.” He was downright schizophrenic on major issues like the airport. He hard weird press conferences where he made pie-in-the-sky promises that no one believed. He bitched over an over about minor election discrepancies instead of looking like a leader and letting his underlings sweat the small stuff.

He blew it.

Linton Lewis: If you wanna be leader of the opposition, if you wanna be prime minister, the first thing you gotta do is win a freakin’ seat. That’s job #1. Not bragging to welsh newspapers that you are tipped to succeed Arnhim. Just win a damn seat first.

Sure, Linton is running in a traditional Labour/ULP seat. So I understand if you lose it once. Twice. But three times?!? Against CLAYTON BURGIN?? People say that Clayton may be the dullest knife in the ULP’s kitchen. Yet Linton, with all of his qualifications, and background and bearing, managed to gain a whole 8 votes on Clayton in five years.

The average swing towards the NDP on the mainland was 300 votes per constituency. Linton gained 8. That tells you all you need to know.

Fact is, the more you know Linton, the less you like him. Fact is, he hangs with too many gangster guys and impregnates too many minor girls. Hate to say it, but for all his smarts, he is a sleazy guy. And people can sense that.

Linton’s only shot at parliament is to be installed as Arnhim’s successor in East Kingstown or Terrance’s successor in the Southern Grenadines. But why would Arnhim or leader-in-waiting Leacock ever agree to that?

Michelle Fife: All ULP candidates lost in Kingstown, so no great shame in that. But like I said, in an election where the average swing to the NDP was 300 votes, Michelle managed to preside over a 548-vote swing away from the incumbent. Like I said, West Kingstown is now the safest NDP seat outside of Bequia. And Michelle can be blamed for quite a bit of that.

She was arrogant. She was green. She was shallow. She listened to the wrong people, alienated the wrong people, and displayed zero political instincts. And she ran the worst campaign of any candidate not named Burton Williams. I think her political career is over. And if it isn’t, it should be.

If there is a silver lining to this, hopefully it is that we put to rest this limiting stereotype of women in politics that was forming. The old men that run political parties in SVG seem comfortable with young, shrill, shallow, windbags (see Fife, Michelle; Fredricks, Vynette; Baptiste, Anesia) and scared sh!tless of mature, sensible, substantive women (see Baptiste, Rene; Mitchell, Louise). Now that Michelle and Vynette have flamed out, maybe we can get away from tokenism and non-threatening female stereotypes. Women are out-graduating men in SVG at a 3-1 clip at the university level. And Michelle/Vynette was the best we could find?!?

SCL: The SCL website bragged that they’d never lost a campaign. The SCL leader said policies and programmes be dammed, all you need to do was to connect with the electorate on “an emotional level, to get them to act on a functional level.” It’s what Hitler did, he said. From the shadows, SCL has orchestrated SVG’s 10-year descent into the nasty, divisive gutter politics that we have today.

Well, like Lauryn Hill says, “you might win some/ but you just lost one.” Hopefully they’ll slink off to some other exotic locale to practice their dark arts. And if they wanna stick around, the first thing our new minister of national reconciliation should do is deport their Limey asses.

Vynette Fredrick: I called Vynette a windbag over a year ago. I was tickled to see a Jomo Thomas column in the Vincentian where he used the same adjective. Someone must have told her once that the loudest person wins the argument. She shouldn’t have believed them.

Vynette is one of the most charismatic people in the NDP. But after her performance over the last few years, she is also one of the least respected.

And tactically, she was a complete dud. She misread the importance of the internet in campaigning. And I don’t think it’s because she’s ahead of her time. I think its cuz she’s too lazy to go knocking on doors. And she spent more time fighting Arnhim’s East Kingstown battles against Luke Browne than she did against Ces McKie.

Now that she hitched her wagon so surely to Arnhim, it’ll be interesting to see what becomes of her. Arnhim may wanna make her a senator, but the rumour is that neither Leacock nor Sir James think very highly of her.

I think her future lies in some kind of Lynch-style rabble-rousing. But she may yet see the light and make something of herself. For now though, she’s a loser.

Girlyn Miguel: Why is SVG’s first woman deputy prime minister in the “loser” column? Because she ran against a dimwit candidate and barely beat him in an NDP stronghold.

Sure, the newspaper will tell you that she beat him by 568 votes, which was the 4th-largest ULP margin of victory. But Girlyn’s margin of victory declined by a whopping 689 votes from the previous election, and she lost 173 votes from her 2005 vote total. No other ULP candidate on the mainland lost more than 77 votes from the previous election total.

Those kinda numbers speak of rapidly declining personal popularity. Stick a fork in her, she’s done as a candidate.

Luke Browne: During the campaign, Luke supplanted Saboto as the ULP’s golden child. The NDP took him to court. Vynette ambushed him on radio. NDP bloggers attacked him. All those mothers and aunties in the ULP embraced him. On election night, as the results were coming in, everyone was asking: “is Luke beating Arnhim”?

Not even close.

The conventional wisdom on Luke was that he’d get more votes than Julian in East Kingstown, particularly among the suburbanites of Cane Garden, and that his “non-Julian-ness” alone would make the race tighter. Add to the Rhodes Scholar bit, the youth, the good looks, the charm, the work ethic. . . he was the long shout that every ULP supporter was praying for.

Turns out, Julian Francis wasn’t the reason ULP lost East Kingstown. Arnhim Eustace is the reason ULP lost East Kingstown. Luke actually got LESS votes that the evil Julian Francis got in 2005. And the promised Cane Garden “bounce” was a mere 26 votes. And every one of those 26 votes – and more – were lost in Sion Hill.

Luke worked hard, but not smart. He had trouble connecting to the man on the street. And he couldn’t overcome three major issues: (1) people in EK don’t like his dad; (2) he was too young/new for some people; and (3) Kingstowners thought NDP was gonna win the election, so they voted for the guy who they figured would be Prime Minister.

Luke isn’t dead politically. He’s made a name for himself. His best bet now is that Leacock manages to force Arnhim into a premature retirement. If Arnhim steps down from the NDP leadership and quits his seat, you gotta like Luke’s chances to win a by-election.

“Book smarts”: Lets compare last year’s parliament to this one. You’ve lost two medical doctors, a lawyer, and three masters degrees. In the 2010 elections three lawyers got their asses handed to them. A Rhodes Scholar was sent packing. And a known pedophile is in parliament (OK, that last one isn’t related to schooling, but still).

The parliament, and the government’s cabinet, have suffered from “brain drain.” On paper, things seemed to have dumbed-down a notch. But I don’t think it’s a bad thing at all. There are many more perspectives and viewpoints in this parliament. And I think that a lot of those university-educated ministers on the ULP side were pretty damn lazy and aloof. Coming from Milton Cato’s 8-lawyer cabinet, this parliament is a humungous improvement.

Women: Women, to use Gonsalves’ phrase, “owned de campaign.” Especially on the ULP side. Men, unfortunately, are owning de government. I think this is the first time under Gonsalves that he has not named at least one woman to the Senate. I understand that Fife is political toxic waste, and that Forde is reportedly with child. But jeez, some estrogen would have been nice (Girlyn and the attorney general are so old that they don’t have any more estrogen than I do).

Women were pigeonholed into some unflattering stereotypes in this election: windbag. . . accuser. . . voting cattle. Gotta change. Gotta change now.

Negative Campaigning: It didn’t work. 10 years of Lynch didn’t work. A decade of Ralph-bashing didn’t work. Lies, slander, accusations and commess didn’t work.

Let’s put it to bed, shall we? I hope that the postmortems of both parties conclude that the talk-radio scandalmongering is a waste of time. I hope they get a clue. And a plan. And a vision for SVG. Let’s see how THAT works, for a change.

The NDP: This was their election to win or lose. And they lost it. They never made the transition from raucous opposition to showing that they were ready to govern. They botched their positions on the airport and on education. Their manifesto was a joke. They were not united. And they lost more momentum in 12 months than anyone not named Barack Obama.

The NDP blew it. And they have stuck themselves in opposition for another 5-10 years.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN, VINCY NOASTRADAMUS?

OK. First off, this blog is too damn long already. So the fun analysis and prediction bit will come in the coming weeks/months. But lemme sketch it out for you:

The NDP is in trouble.

See, on one hand, I don’t believe in 4th terms. Hardly ever happens in the Caribbean. So the NDP has history on its side. The ULP formed government after a brief tenure as an 8-7 opposition, so the NDP has history on its side again. They could do it. They SHOULD do it.

But. . .

BUT. . .

They got problems.

Problem #1 is that in the next elections, the ULP already has 6 sure seats: North Central Windward, South Central Windward, South Windward, Marriaqua, East St. George and West St. George.

The NDP has 3-4: North and South Grenadines, West Kingstown, and maybe Central Kingstown (if Leacock is then leader of the party).

The next election would be fought in 5 constituencies only: North Windward, East Kingstown, South Leeward, Central Leeward, and North Leeward. And the NDP would have to win 4 of those 5.

Why do I say that? Swings baby, swings.

The average mainland seat swung 300 votes in 2010. That was when everything was against the ULP. Lets say that the average swing somehow gets up to 400 votes per constituency in the next election. Every seat with a greater than 400-vote margin of victory is therefore a “safe” seat in the next election. If you check our history, that pretty much holds up (with a few exceptional exceptions).

ULP only won 8 seats, but they won 6 of those 8 by over 400 votes.

NDP won 7 seats, but three of those were by under 400 votes.

Those 5 are your marginals. And the ULP is in better shape there.

Problem#2 is speculative: The global economy should be stronger. The airport should be complete. The hospital in Georgetown should be done. Kids should have their laptops. In other words, the environment may not be so bad for the ULP as it was this time. The NDP, on the other hand, may be in flux. If they can reinvent themselves in the next 2 years, great. If Arnhim is still hanging on, and Leacock is still trying to supplant him, it won’t end well.

Problem #3 is those 17 constituencies. NDP managed to stall the creation of two extra constituencies using the courts. But that stalling won’t last another 5 years. Parliament has already decreed that there will be two new constituencies. Its gonna happen.

Now, the logical place for the two constituencies, based on demographics, are (1) between East St. George, West St. George and East Kingstown; and (2) between South Leeward, Central Leeward and West Kingstown. Guess what? The St. George’s seat is an almost automatic ULP seat. And any leeward seat that doesn’t include Campden Park is a pretty solid ULP seat too.

So if the ULP stands still, and does nothing other than let parliament’s law get enacted, their slim 8-7 majority is actually a 10-7 majority!! The NDP doesn’t need to win one more seat in the next election, they need to win two.

 

* * *

 

Check the blog in a few for a fuller break-down of the data, and what Vincy Nostradamus thinks it all means. Watch the trick of predicting an election result a full term in advance...

NDP math: 0 plans + 1 fresh face = >8 seats?

Political campaigns, I thought, ran on a pretty predictable cycle in the Caribbean:
 

1. A new team of fresh faces and big ideas challenges the stodgy, tired incumbents, who have been in power for 10-15 years  
2. The new team makes a number of big promises about its plans – what it will do, what it will change, how it will lead us to the promised land  
3. The new team is swept to power on the basis of its plans and promises, and the dissatisfaction/familiarity/boredom with the incumbents  
4. The new team serves 10-15 years, each year worse than the one that came before it  
5. Over those 10-15 years, the out-of-power party refreshes itself, and a new set of young turks come to the fore, full of fresh energy and ideas   
6. Return to step 1

That’s pretty much been the norm in Caribbean politics. And that aint necessarily a bad thing, either. But this year, this election in SVG, is totally different. I just can’t figure it out.

Why do I say that? Well, if you agree with my “cycle” above, you’ll see that the opposition needs 2 things on their side: plans, and freshness. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what they DON’T have.

We have two weeks to go ‘till Election Day. 13 days. And the NDP has yet to lay out any plan or coherent vision for the country.

All I’ve heard (and I’ve been listening) is:

     “you tear down our poster!”
     “you not distributing hurricane relief fairly!”
     “you full of [liars/thieves/communists/rapists/victimizers/etc.]!”
     “you registered three voters from central Kingstown in east Kingstown instead!”
     “you did everything wrong! EVERYTHING!”
     “We hate Ralph Gonsalves!”
     “No!”
     “Enough! No More!”
     “Hugo Chavez! Cuba! Iran!”
     “Pastor gonna Christen his pickney first!”

[Oh! You can add to this list some vague words about a “Meritocracy” from Linton Lewis and an abstract wish for “Vincentians not to go to bed hungry” from Leacock.]

Ohh-kayy, then. So, allow me to paraphrase the core of the NDP election message, to date: “elect us, and we promise a country where campaign posters will remain up and all voters will be registered where they reside. We will discontinue everything that the previous administration has done or is doing. We will take care of our supporters before anyone else, but among our own supporters there will be a meritocracy and fairly distributed relief supplies. We will ensure that no Vincentian goes to bed hungry. Just like Chatoyer is our 1st National Hero, we will make Ralph Gonsalves our 1st National Villain. Vote NDP.”

There’s gotta be more, right?

. . . right?

Thirteen days to go, and no manifesto from the NDP. Granted, no manifesto from the ULP either, but they’re running on their record, not their promises. And Ralph has also printed a bunch of mini-manifestos as newspaper inserts on ULP’s plans for health, education, poverty reduction, etc. (What? You didn’t read any of them? Now whose fault is that?)

So. NDP is not exactly setting the world on fire in the “plans” department. What about “freshness”?

Well, fresh aint exactly what you’d call these guys either. Its fair to say most of them have passed their sell-by dates. Almost all of the candidates date back to the NDP’s 2001 defeat, and some, like Burton Williams, go back even further. Basically, as new NDP faces, you have Vynette, and the Guy-They-Picked-To-Go-Against-Ralph-After-Dinky-And-Margaret-Fell-Through.

So, basically, sans Vinny-Vee and the sacrificial lamb, NDP is running a bunch of old men, most of whom were rejected the last two times they went to the polls. Arnhim is older than Ralph, and Ralph aint no spring chicken.

Hmmmmm. . . that’s an interesting strategy.

Incredibly, (and unforgivably, if you’re an NDP supporter), it’s the incumbent party that’s fresher and more forward-looking. Eight of the 13 mainland seats have new ULP faces, most of them young. Seven of those eight new faces come in seats that the ULP won in the last election.

Plans-wise, like I said, the ULP is winning this battle too. They have announced the dates that their “regular” manifesto and “youth” manifesto will be published. They’ve put booklets in the paper. They’ve explained their record, which is pretty solid. And while they’ve been a bit too willing to wallow in the mud with the NDP, their public meetings have generally been more substantive than the opposition’s (especially if Ralph, Luke, Jerrol, Saboto or Ces are speaking).

So, if you’re the NDP, the question is: how do you win if you’re being out-hustled in the vision department and outshone by fresher faces?

The answer is: you don’t. You just don’t.

I believe that the cycle at the start of this posting accurately describes almost every change of power in the Caribbean in the last 30+ years, from Jamaica to Barbados to TnT. Opposition parties win elections when they have fresher faces and better plans. The NDP has neither.

So I think this isn’t their year. I think they’ll lose. I think Arnhim will be ousted as leader after 3 consecutive defeats. And I think that there will be upheaval, and a bunch of new faces will come to the fore of the NDP [Anesia Baptiste, Grant Connell, Kenton Chance, Jomo Thomas(?) and some brilliant young person(s) we haven't thought of yet]. Mitchell, Lynch, Burton, Horne, etc. will fade away. The new faces will bring with them new ideas. The new look NDP will have a better chance in 2015 than the old guard NDP has in 2010.

And my “cycle” will remain a valid and useful political tool. Can we call it the VP Theory of Cyclical Caribbean Incumbency? Coming soon to a UWI seminar near you!

Back for the Silly Season

"Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in" - Michael Corleone, Godfather III

It's been, what? eight months?

See, the problem for me is that I love politics. But in SVG, we aren't exactly savvy practitioners of the dark art of politics. Oh, we have lots of commess. Lots of absolutely unfounded opinions. And lots of... for want of a better word... bullshit.

But in terms of ideas, reasoned debate, or even some juicy backroom intrigue, being a political junkie in SVG is kinda like being Tiger Woods in a room full of Black women: not much to hold your interest, and certainly nothing you were hoping to see.

The burst of politics and issues that surrounded the Referendum campaign had me engaged for a bit, but by January, we were back to same ole' same ole from both sides. When EG Lynch is the most politically influential figure in your society... (I don't know how to finish that statement without sounding a bit too superior and elitist, so I'll let it hang).

So, I got bored. I tuned out. I started watching Sunday Morning talk shows about USA politics (Guess what? They're more backward than we are!). I got my fix from various online magazines. Life was good.

Like Michael Corleone, I thought I was out. But I wasn't counting on the political silly season. Boundaries Commissions! Campaign finance! Internal party squabbling on candidate selection! Lies! Rumours!

Ideas? not yet. But hope springs eternal.

I'm back. Maybe. At least until elections. I think :)