NDP math: 0 plans + 1 fresh face = >8 seats?

Political campaigns, I thought, ran on a pretty predictable cycle in the Caribbean:
 

1. A new team of fresh faces and big ideas challenges the stodgy, tired incumbents, who have been in power for 10-15 years  
2. The new team makes a number of big promises about its plans – what it will do, what it will change, how it will lead us to the promised land  
3. The new team is swept to power on the basis of its plans and promises, and the dissatisfaction/familiarity/boredom with the incumbents  
4. The new team serves 10-15 years, each year worse than the one that came before it  
5. Over those 10-15 years, the out-of-power party refreshes itself, and a new set of young turks come to the fore, full of fresh energy and ideas   
6. Return to step 1

That’s pretty much been the norm in Caribbean politics. And that aint necessarily a bad thing, either. But this year, this election in SVG, is totally different. I just can’t figure it out.

Why do I say that? Well, if you agree with my “cycle” above, you’ll see that the opposition needs 2 things on their side: plans, and freshness. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what they DON’T have.

We have two weeks to go ‘till Election Day. 13 days. And the NDP has yet to lay out any plan or coherent vision for the country.

All I’ve heard (and I’ve been listening) is:

     “you tear down our poster!”
     “you not distributing hurricane relief fairly!”
     “you full of [liars/thieves/communists/rapists/victimizers/etc.]!”
     “you registered three voters from central Kingstown in east Kingstown instead!”
     “you did everything wrong! EVERYTHING!”
     “We hate Ralph Gonsalves!”
     “No!”
     “Enough! No More!”
     “Hugo Chavez! Cuba! Iran!”
     “Pastor gonna Christen his pickney first!”

[Oh! You can add to this list some vague words about a “Meritocracy” from Linton Lewis and an abstract wish for “Vincentians not to go to bed hungry” from Leacock.]

Ohh-kayy, then. So, allow me to paraphrase the core of the NDP election message, to date: “elect us, and we promise a country where campaign posters will remain up and all voters will be registered where they reside. We will discontinue everything that the previous administration has done or is doing. We will take care of our supporters before anyone else, but among our own supporters there will be a meritocracy and fairly distributed relief supplies. We will ensure that no Vincentian goes to bed hungry. Just like Chatoyer is our 1st National Hero, we will make Ralph Gonsalves our 1st National Villain. Vote NDP.”

There’s gotta be more, right?

. . . right?

Thirteen days to go, and no manifesto from the NDP. Granted, no manifesto from the ULP either, but they’re running on their record, not their promises. And Ralph has also printed a bunch of mini-manifestos as newspaper inserts on ULP’s plans for health, education, poverty reduction, etc. (What? You didn’t read any of them? Now whose fault is that?)

So. NDP is not exactly setting the world on fire in the “plans” department. What about “freshness”?

Well, fresh aint exactly what you’d call these guys either. Its fair to say most of them have passed their sell-by dates. Almost all of the candidates date back to the NDP’s 2001 defeat, and some, like Burton Williams, go back even further. Basically, as new NDP faces, you have Vynette, and the Guy-They-Picked-To-Go-Against-Ralph-After-Dinky-And-Margaret-Fell-Through.

So, basically, sans Vinny-Vee and the sacrificial lamb, NDP is running a bunch of old men, most of whom were rejected the last two times they went to the polls. Arnhim is older than Ralph, and Ralph aint no spring chicken.

Hmmmmm. . . that’s an interesting strategy.

Incredibly, (and unforgivably, if you’re an NDP supporter), it’s the incumbent party that’s fresher and more forward-looking. Eight of the 13 mainland seats have new ULP faces, most of them young. Seven of those eight new faces come in seats that the ULP won in the last election.

Plans-wise, like I said, the ULP is winning this battle too. They have announced the dates that their “regular” manifesto and “youth” manifesto will be published. They’ve put booklets in the paper. They’ve explained their record, which is pretty solid. And while they’ve been a bit too willing to wallow in the mud with the NDP, their public meetings have generally been more substantive than the opposition’s (especially if Ralph, Luke, Jerrol, Saboto or Ces are speaking).

So, if you’re the NDP, the question is: how do you win if you’re being out-hustled in the vision department and outshone by fresher faces?

The answer is: you don’t. You just don’t.

I believe that the cycle at the start of this posting accurately describes almost every change of power in the Caribbean in the last 30+ years, from Jamaica to Barbados to TnT. Opposition parties win elections when they have fresher faces and better plans. The NDP has neither.

So I think this isn’t their year. I think they’ll lose. I think Arnhim will be ousted as leader after 3 consecutive defeats. And I think that there will be upheaval, and a bunch of new faces will come to the fore of the NDP [Anesia Baptiste, Grant Connell, Kenton Chance, Jomo Thomas(?) and some brilliant young person(s) we haven't thought of yet]. Mitchell, Lynch, Burton, Horne, etc. will fade away. The new faces will bring with them new ideas. The new look NDP will have a better chance in 2015 than the old guard NDP has in 2010.

And my “cycle” will remain a valid and useful political tool. Can we call it the VP Theory of Cyclical Caribbean Incumbency? Coming soon to a UWI seminar near you!