ISSUE #4: The Sir James Factor (or Anansi rides again)

James Mitchell is bored. His hotel is closed. And his US$100 million Isle de Qatre deal is in limbo – his investors a victim of the global economic crisis.

What’s a sharp, still-vibrant octogenarian, with huge reserves of national popular support to do?

Go back to politics, of course!

Like an old boxer coming out of retirement, Sir James is back in the political ring. It’s a real blast from the past. And all of a sudden, Ralphie isn’t the only Vincy politician coming up with witty catch phrases and memorable quotes. A few gems so far:

“If better can’t be done, let worse continue”

“Burn it! I want us to burn this new constitution!”

“The queen aint trouble nobody”

“Nobody touching this constitution when we vote no. We voting no, and nobody coming to interfere with it while Son Mitchell alive!”

“We are going to vote No with this constitution, and let me tell Mr. Leacock, if you get into parliament and think you are going to interfere with the constitution we have here, I coming out to deal with you, too!”

. . . and the beat goes on. Sir James, as always, is a soundbite waiting to happen.

The SVG government is positively giddy that Sir James is back. Read that again. I did not mistype. The government is claiming to be thrilled. They think that if James is back, shooting from the lip, spreading dissention in the ranks of the NDP, challenging Arnhim, dissing Eustace, and generally being his usual disruptive self, it will only weaken the opposition to the Constitutional referendum.

Sir James has already disagreed with a number of Eustace’s positions on the constitution: He thinks the NDP should not have pulled out of the drafting process. He thinks that their call for prime ministerial term limits is balderdash. He wants an even bigger parliament than the new constitution proposes, even though the NDP is calling for a smaller one. And he is strongly in favour of retaining the queen and the Privy Council, in direct contradiction with the official NDP line.

Not to mention Sir James’ constant, emasculating attacks on Senator Leacock (including asking him if he was “seeing his period(!)”). The government thinks that this infighting and sniping will push people to ignore the disjointed opposition and vote “yes” on the referendum, or, at worst “just stay home and not vote “no.”

Me? I’m not so sure.

For all of his divisiveness, the fact is that Sir James is still a big box-office draw for the NDP faithful. He’s also a warm and fuzzy reminder of their glory years in power (the corruption and mismanagement fading into distant memory). The fact is, if Sir James is speaking at an NDP meeting, more people turn up. They turn up to hear him say “vote no.”

How is it a good thing if more people are hearing the opposition message?

All the opposition needs is 34% of the vote.  That’s not hard to get. People at the opposition rallies aren’t grasping the finer points of the differences between Sir James and Arnhim. They’re coming out, and hearing “vote no.”

The intellectual dissection of Sir James’ positions don’t capture the electricity that he generates among the faithful. It’s something that Arnhim & Co. can’t do. He may be an ornery and backward old coot, but he carries the same charismatic glow that separates Ralph from the rest of his corps.

Make no mistake. Sir James is an asset to the opposition’s “no vote” campaign.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that he is an asset to the opposition, generally.  Sir James didn’t get on the boat from Bequia to defend a beloved old constitution. Far from it. We already know that – in 1979 and 1984 – he made no bones about the fact that he doesn’t like our old constitution.

For Sir James, this is about the 2010 elections.

He’s already declared that the Arnhim needs to get 51% of the vote in the referendum, or “crapaud smoke yuh pipe.” Well, guess what? No way in hell Arnhim gets 51%. Thirty-five percent? Likely. Forty percent? Possible. Fifty-one? Never in a million years.

So when Arnhim fails to meet Sir James’ standard (even if he succeeds in blocking the referendum), Sir James gets to say “if this was an election, you would’ve lost again. You guys need me back.” That will set off the infighting and drama that the ULP is hoping for.

Can Sir James lead his party to another election victory? I doubt it. I don’t see the majority of the country being swayed by his backwardness, old-timey charms and idiosyncrasies. He can pull 35%, but that only gets you back into opposition.  Vincentians have evolved a bit past Sir James particular brand of politics. Remember, the last time a Sir James-led party got the majority of the vote in SVG was 1994 – a full 15 years ago.

Sir James? Bad for the constitution’s referendum prospects. Bad for the NDP’s election prospects.