Instant reaction to the first post-election Parliament

The first parliament since the new elections is now in the books. It ended about 15 minutes ago. In some ways, it was just like the parliament that preceded it: Ralph is still Prime Minister, Arnhim is still leader of the opposition, and Leacock is still making an ass of himself. In other ways, it was very different: Two woman senators on the opposition side, a new butcher of the English language (David Browne) to join Clayton on the government side, and a new insane person (Anesia) to join Cummings on the opposition benches.

 

Here are my instant opinions on what just transpired (instant opinions subject to instantly change with reflection and/or rum shop debate):

THUMBS UP:
To Ralph Gonsalves for calling a “snap parliament” to force the NDP to name its senators before they were ready. Dec. 29 was about as early as possible for parliament to sit following the elections and after Christmas. I have it on good authority that when Arnhim heard the date for parliament, he contacted the Clerk of the House to ask what was the hurry, why not wait till the new year?
 

The hurry was that Ralph wanted to force Arnhim’s hand – to make him name his senators without time to consult and while the party was still in turmoil, and then sit back and watch the dissension in the NDP ranks.
 

Have you seen the midweek Searchlight yet? Loser Linton Lewis is in there telling the press that he, the chairman of the NDP, was not consulted on the senators, that he only knew when the public knew, and that a number of his NDP colleagues were also in the dark. Linton also sulkily refused to comment on the quality of the appointments themselves.
 

Warning: This party will self destruct in 10, 9, 8 . . .

 

To Arnhim Eustace for naming two women as senators. I’m not a fan of either one. In fact, I’m not sure Anesia is sane (then again, with Cummings moving up to the ranks of MP, the NDP had to fulfill its quota of at least one crazy senator at all times). My views on Vynette are well known. But for gender balance reasons, it was a good move. And, honestly, they’re brighter than at least half of the people in that House, plus they’ll both make for great theater/comedy in the parliament.  

 

Historically, if memory serves, the NDP has had only male senators during the ULP era (Burns, Rasum, Leacock, Cummins), while the ULP had three women (Fife, Forde, Young). In one fell swoop, Arnhim has narrowed that score to 3-2.  

 

Arnhim was under pressure to make two picks (a) with limited time; (b) who wouldn’t challenge his shaky grip on the party’s leadership; and (c) who wouldn’t make the NDP rank and file have a “wtf?!” moment. Based on what he had to choose from, they were solid picks.  

Also, in picking two Arnhim loyalists, he showed that, for now at least, he’s still in charge of the NDP. Mitchell already said that he doesn’t think young women should be involved in politics – they should stay home and raise a family. So you know they’re not Mitchell picks. Linton is still on the outside looking in, so you know his faction was ignored. And Leacock also thinks Anesia is too much of a loose cannon, so he had no role either. This was Arnhim flexing what’s left of his Leader of the Opposition muscle. Use it till you lose it, Arnie.
 

 

To Queen Elizabeth II for still having her royal foot on our sorry subjugated necks. Look at all those proud black people and anti-colonialists pledging loyalty to her and her heirs (or “hairs” if you’re David Browne. All of her hairs, Dave? Or just the ones on her head? How bout underarms? Pubes?). Old Queen E still running tings in SVG.

 

 

THUMBS DOWN:
To “Major” Leacock for his silly little tirade. Arnhim must have been smiling to himself as the “major” looked undeniably minor league. For those of you who have a life, let me set the scene: 

 

 After everyone gets sworn in, there is a section on the agenda called “congratulations.”
 

Ralph gets up and congratulates all the MPs and senators, wishes them well, makes a tame lil dig at Arnhim.
 

Arnhim gets up, congratulates all the MPs and senators, pledges to be a vigorous opposition, and makes a tame lil dig at Ralph.
 

Clayton gets up and congratulates some guy from Calliaqua who just turned 100 years old (inappropriate, you say? Not the right time, you say? That’s how I STAY elected, he say).
 

Then comes the “Major.”
 

Mind you, you’re supposed to be making congratulatory remarks. But Leacock is only intent on congratulating himself. He tells us how he increased the vote for NDP in Central Kingstown from x% to y% to z% over the years. He talks about how hard he struggled. He talked about his 88 year old mother and his deceased father.
 

Me, me, me. I, I, I. Congratulations to me. I did it.
 

Then he launches into some vague, class-based tirade against entitled people and aristocrats (wait, isn't the NDP the classist/elitist/aristocratic party?). He says that he won’t ask Ralph to apologise for his “vitriolic” statements during the campaign, then turns around and does exactly that: demand an apology. Ralph is shouting at him, the speaker is trying to get control, the Major isn’t yielding the floor to the speaker. Loud. Divisive. Angry.
 

Very classy, Major Leacock. How appropriate for the ceremonial first day of a new parliament.
 

NDP supporters who were calling for Arnhim’s head must have cringed. Is this the best we got?
 

 

To Arnhim for (1) nominating someone to challenge Hendrick Alexander for speaker (why? You knew you were gonna lose, and the final result – 13-9 – makes the divide look wider than the 8-7 MP balance); (2) not in any way challenging the legitimacy of the vote or the election (didn’t he have a press conference the day after the election to say that the NDP had been cheated?); and (3) for once again suggesting that he was gonna bring the government down early. Big talk Arnie. But if you can’t back it up, you sound empty. Time will tell.
 

 

To Ralph for pretending to be this beneficent wise old man when welcoming Vynette and Anesia to the parliament. Um, Comrade, is that the same “snotty nose gal” Vynette? And the same “cultist, similar to Jim Jones” Anesia? Excuse me while I LMFAO.
 

 

To Julian Francis for speaking. No other senator spoke, did they? And to do what, thank your ULP warriors and calypsonians for their part in the party’s victory? Get out of campaign mode, already. Wrong place, wrong time, wrong person.
 

 

To Linton Lewis for aforementioned bitch-fest in the Searchlight. Face it Linton, you call no shots in the NDP. None. Plus, that kinda dirty laundry should be washed indoors, buddy. And if its being taken out in public, let someone else with some authority do the washing (i.e. either Sir James or someone who actually won a damn seat). Your best bet now is to hitch your wagon to someone else and become their henchman for the next five years. Chill.

WINNERS, LOSERS, AND PREDICTIONS FROM THE 2010 GENERAL ELECTIONS

Who else went to both the Argyle super-rally and the Taurus Riley super-rally? Who else listened to both Astaphan and Lynch on talk radio? Who else went to both the ULP and the NDP’s post-election rallies? Who else is gonna stop, analyse and give you 4,000 words on the General Elections? No one but VP.

Here we go:

WINNERS

Ralph Gonsalves: One year ago, the political obituaries had been written. The referendum campaign had blown up spectacularly in his face. There were allegations of rape and sexual harassment. Lynch and NICE radio were vilifying him daily. The national economy was limping along. He was a “lame duck” Prime Minister, said the NDP. Arnhim Eustace crowed that he, Arnhim, was “the man in charge.”

What a difference a year makes.

D’ Comrade rolled the dice, jettisoning more than half of the incumbent ULP MPs (Rene Baptiste, Glen Beache, Mike Browne, Conrad Sayers, Douggie Slater, Louis Straker, Selmon Walters) plus 2005 contestant Julian Francis. Half of the new faces succeeded, and exactly half of the ULP’s eight MPs are rookies (Saboto, Agustus, Ces, Maxwell).

Like Gonsalves said after the election, “a win is a win.” And he is PM for five more years. That’s the point of the contest: to win the elections and be Prime Minister, right? He has locked down (most) of the Windward side of the island, and is reasonably well positioned for a 4th ULP term (more on that later). A win is a win. And a winner is a winner.


“Major” St Clair Leacock: Leacock is the biggest winner on the NDP side. He worked hard in his constituency for 10 years in opposition, building alliances and influencing the youth vote. He portrayed himself as the only man with the “guts” to take on Ralph Gonsalves (not the brains; not the vision; the guts. In that sense, he’s right). Better than that, the NDP’s golden child, Linton Lewis, got his but kicked again in East St. George.

Believe it or not, “Major” Leacock is now the odds-on favourite to take over the NDP after Arnhim accepts the reality of three straight defeats. Which means that Leacock will soon be 2,000 votes away from the Prime Ministership of SVG. Leacock could not have imagined a better outcome. For his personal ambitions, this result is even better than an NDP victory.

(Sidenote: I will NEVER be able to take this man seriously if he keeps calling himself “Major.” He was in the frikkin CADETS!!! He basically did marching drills! SVG has no army, but he’s a major?!? And why doesn’t anyone else who was in the cadets refer to themselves by their “military” rank? Where are all the other generals and majors and lieutenants and sergeants from the Cadets? Why don’t we refer to retired police officers by their rank? This is so dumb.)

Saboto Caesar: In 2010, there was a swing against the ULP in almost every constituency. In terms of margin of victory, every ULP victory was slimmer than the previous election. Except in Caesar’s South Central Windward. True, he only increased Selmon Walters’ 2005 margin of victory by a mere 2 votes, but he also picked up 157 votes more than Walters got. And he had to contend with literally two plane-loads of NDP voters being flown in to his constituency on the eve of election, most of whom voted in Greggs.

Saboto is also now the heir-apparent to Gonsalves’ leadership of the ULP. He’s smart, handsome, charismatic, hardworking and winner of a solid ULP stronghold. None of the other rumoured pretenders to the throne (Luke Browne, Camillo Gonsalves, Glen Beache, Rene Baptiste) can claim all five of those attributes. Right now, the only thing standing between Saboto and Ralph is Ralph himself. And Ralph seems “well pleased” with his young apprentice. Giving Saboto the Ministry of Tourism – arguably the second-most-powerful ministry in the government – is a clear indication of the Comrade’s blessing.

Clayton Burgin: Clayton has strong disagreements with verbs. And nouns. And adjectives. He didn’t have the educational pedigree of most of the 2005-2010 ULP cabinet. He didn’t seem particularly well-liked in East St. George. And he was going up against none other than Dr. Linton Lewis – heir apparent in the NDP, with the glittering sports background, academic quality, and successful business.

Guess what? In 2005, Clayton beat Linton by 700 votes. In 2010, he beat him by 692. In five years, with a national swing against the ULP, Clayton slipped a mere eight votes against a quality opponent. Give jack his jacket. The man is a winner.

Daniel Cummings: The licks Daniel Cummings put on Michelle Fife should have him jailed for assault. Quick, guess the two seats where the NDP won by the biggest margins. If you picked North and South Grenadines, you’d only be half right. Cummings beat Fife by 513 votes. Only in Bequia did the NDP do better, in terms of raw votes. West Kingstown is now a safe NDP seat in the next elections. The reason for that is equal parts Cummings and Fife (more on her in the “Losers” section), but the fact is that the two NDP candidates who will worry least about their seats in the next election are Friday in Bequia and Cummings in West Kingstown.

Unfortunately, he is as mad as a hatter, so no one will seriously consider him for leadership of the NDP. Insane people don’t usually make good leaders (see Gairy, Sir Eric; Hitler, Adolf; Caligula, Caesar).

Julian Francis: After the referendum, Julian Francis got demoted. He was stripped of his ministerial post and asked to go back to what he does best, which is organizing rallies and mobilizing crowds. He was given 12 months to revive a dispirited base of support, and he was given no money to do it. Look around town to see how badly the ULP was outspent in this campaign: Hardly any posters. No foreign entertainment. No fireworks. No cool ladies t-shirts and sleeveless tees and backpacks like last time (in fact, some really cheap shirts, and not a lot of them either).

But three of the four biggest crowds of the campaign were ULP crowds (Victoria Park twice, Argyle once – the fourth was the NDP/Taurrus Riley event in Victoria Park). That’s not an indication of support (remember the biggest crowd of the referendum was the YES Vote/Busy Signal event), but it is an indication of energy. Francis got the base out to vote. And the ULP base is still a bit bigger than the NDP base.

The grumblings are already starting about his reappointment to a ministerial post. Fair enough, he’s not a likable guy. But in a reduced cabinet of limited experience, you need some people who just get things done. Francis has proven that he’s one of those people.

The Grenadines: If you wanna know how pissed I am that the Grenadines are two seats, take a browse through some of my previous posts on this blog. Simply put, there are not enough people in the Grenadines to justify it being two seats. Which means that a Grenadine vote is worth almost twice as much as a mainland vote. Which is unfair. And unconstitutional. And wrong. As far as I'm concerned, the ULP didn't win 8-7, they won 8-6. Looks kinda different, doesn't it?

But here we are again, counting the Grenadines as two instead of one. So they win again.

Check this out: Godwin Friday won the Northern Grenadines in a romp, with 80% of the vote. But Friday’s TOTAL VOTES (2,019) would not have earned him a victory in ANY SEAT ON THE MAINLAND. In fact, seven losing candidates on the mainland got MORE votes than Friday got in his landslide victory! (the losers of East Kingstown, Central Kingstown, South Leeward, North Leeward, East St. George, West St. George and Central Leeward).

Make it worse: Terrance Ollivere’s comfortable 63% victory in the Southern Grenadines came on the strength of a mere 1,112 votes!! Excuse me, but WTF?!? On the mainland, only one of the 26 ULP or NDP candidates got less than 1,112 votes, and that was the NDP’s sacrificial lamb in the Comrade’s constituency.

Put it another way: About 4,300 people voted in the North and South Grenadines combined. If “the Grenadines” was one constituency, those 4,300 people would be the third-smallest constituency in the country (11th out of 14 constituencies).

But, somehow, 4,300 people in the Grenadines get to elect two representatives to Parliament. But the 5,200 voters in East St. George only get one. Ditto the 5,000 in South Leeward.

Crazy. But as long as it continues, the Grenadines win.

Que Pasa: Que Pasa backed the NDP hard in this campaign. Mucho dinero was distributed by him and his minions, often with the faces of dead American presidents. I dunno if its cuz Que Pasa hates Ralph, or Julian, or ULP policy; or if the NDP had promised to make his tax and money laundering issues go away if they were elected. Let's just say that the man spent a lot of his money and used a lot of his time to get rid of the ULP.

Que Pasa’s zone of influence runs up the western coast of St. Vincent from West Kingstown to North Leeward. Guess what? The NDP won three of the four seats on that coast – up from zero in the previous election. Was that all QP’s doing? Of course not. But he helped.

In North Leeward, particularly, QP and the underlings of the extradited Dexter Chance did a great job in mobilizing the ganja farmers and drug runners who usually sit-out election events.

In North Leeward, Jerrol Thompson actually got 71 MORE votes than he got in 2005, when he won the seat. But Patel Matthews grew by 187 votes. A ridiculous 114 of those 187 new votes came from tiny polling stations in Chateaubelair and Petit Bordel. Guess where the drug barons’ stronghold is?

Que Pasa is now a major player in Vincy politics. And that scares me. It scares me a lot.

Vincy Patriot: After the referendum, I was questioning my powers of deduction, analysis and prophecy. After all, it was yours truly who famously said before the referendum: “No way in hell Arnhim gets 51%. Thirty-five percent? Likely. Forty percent? Possible. Fifty-one? Never in a million years.”

But who came roaring back after the referendum? VP, that’s who! 12 months ago – a full year before the election, and back when everyone was predicting a 13-2 ULP defeat, I dropped this tasty nugget on ya’ll:

“So, if everything broke in the ULP’s favour in the next 12 months, and they got their apathetic voters energised, they’re looking at an 8-7 win.”

As it was written, so was it done. I even picked the exact seats that could/would go to ULP and NDP! VP’s powers of prophecy restored!

And for ye doubting Thomases, I also predicted (a) a Nov/Dec election date; (b) that the only “referendum reform” that the ULP would attempt is the increase to 17 constituencies; (c) that the ULP would go with fresh faces while the NDP would go with old veterans; and that (d) Julian Francis would “whip the party machinery into fighting shape in time for the silly season.”

From now on, you can call me Vincy Nostradamus* I’m like Sex Panther cologne: 60% of the time, I work every time!

* past performance not indication of future success.


LOSERS

Arnhim Eustace: I dunno how to tell you this Arnhim, but its over. You haven’t come to terms with that yet, and that’s OK. It’s been a long hard battle. But at some point, your NDP buddies are gonna have an intervention for you. They’re gonna give you a 12-step program. The first step is gonna be acceptance of the fact that you’ll never be PM. The 11th step is gonna be your relinquishing the post of Leader of the Opposition. And the 12th step is you stepping aside in East Kingstown for either Linton Lewis or Louise Mitchell.

Arnhim ran an awful campaign. He had the money. He had the referendum result. He had a global financial crisis. He had voter discontent. All he needed to do was to harness all of it. To ride the wave.

But damned if he didn’t find a way to screw it up. He ceded control to Mitchell. To SCL. To Lynch. He talked “kinder and gentler” out of one side of his mouth while simultaneously descending into gutter politics. He had some members of his team spouting “meritocracy” while others promised to “christen NDP pickney first.” He was downright schizophrenic on major issues like the airport. He hard weird press conferences where he made pie-in-the-sky promises that no one believed. He bitched over an over about minor election discrepancies instead of looking like a leader and letting his underlings sweat the small stuff.

He blew it.

Linton Lewis: If you wanna be leader of the opposition, if you wanna be prime minister, the first thing you gotta do is win a freakin’ seat. That’s job #1. Not bragging to welsh newspapers that you are tipped to succeed Arnhim. Just win a damn seat first.

Sure, Linton is running in a traditional Labour/ULP seat. So I understand if you lose it once. Twice. But three times?!? Against CLAYTON BURGIN?? People say that Clayton may be the dullest knife in the ULP’s kitchen. Yet Linton, with all of his qualifications, and background and bearing, managed to gain a whole 8 votes on Clayton in five years.

The average swing towards the NDP on the mainland was 300 votes per constituency. Linton gained 8. That tells you all you need to know.

Fact is, the more you know Linton, the less you like him. Fact is, he hangs with too many gangster guys and impregnates too many minor girls. Hate to say it, but for all his smarts, he is a sleazy guy. And people can sense that.

Linton’s only shot at parliament is to be installed as Arnhim’s successor in East Kingstown or Terrance’s successor in the Southern Grenadines. But why would Arnhim or leader-in-waiting Leacock ever agree to that?

Michelle Fife: All ULP candidates lost in Kingstown, so no great shame in that. But like I said, in an election where the average swing to the NDP was 300 votes, Michelle managed to preside over a 548-vote swing away from the incumbent. Like I said, West Kingstown is now the safest NDP seat outside of Bequia. And Michelle can be blamed for quite a bit of that.

She was arrogant. She was green. She was shallow. She listened to the wrong people, alienated the wrong people, and displayed zero political instincts. And she ran the worst campaign of any candidate not named Burton Williams. I think her political career is over. And if it isn’t, it should be.

If there is a silver lining to this, hopefully it is that we put to rest this limiting stereotype of women in politics that was forming. The old men that run political parties in SVG seem comfortable with young, shrill, shallow, windbags (see Fife, Michelle; Fredricks, Vynette; Baptiste, Anesia) and scared sh!tless of mature, sensible, substantive women (see Baptiste, Rene; Mitchell, Louise). Now that Michelle and Vynette have flamed out, maybe we can get away from tokenism and non-threatening female stereotypes. Women are out-graduating men in SVG at a 3-1 clip at the university level. And Michelle/Vynette was the best we could find?!?

SCL: The SCL website bragged that they’d never lost a campaign. The SCL leader said policies and programmes be dammed, all you need to do was to connect with the electorate on “an emotional level, to get them to act on a functional level.” It’s what Hitler did, he said. From the shadows, SCL has orchestrated SVG’s 10-year descent into the nasty, divisive gutter politics that we have today.

Well, like Lauryn Hill says, “you might win some/ but you just lost one.” Hopefully they’ll slink off to some other exotic locale to practice their dark arts. And if they wanna stick around, the first thing our new minister of national reconciliation should do is deport their Limey asses.

Vynette Fredrick: I called Vynette a windbag over a year ago. I was tickled to see a Jomo Thomas column in the Vincentian where he used the same adjective. Someone must have told her once that the loudest person wins the argument. She shouldn’t have believed them.

Vynette is one of the most charismatic people in the NDP. But after her performance over the last few years, she is also one of the least respected.

And tactically, she was a complete dud. She misread the importance of the internet in campaigning. And I don’t think it’s because she’s ahead of her time. I think its cuz she’s too lazy to go knocking on doors. And she spent more time fighting Arnhim’s East Kingstown battles against Luke Browne than she did against Ces McKie.

Now that she hitched her wagon so surely to Arnhim, it’ll be interesting to see what becomes of her. Arnhim may wanna make her a senator, but the rumour is that neither Leacock nor Sir James think very highly of her.

I think her future lies in some kind of Lynch-style rabble-rousing. But she may yet see the light and make something of herself. For now though, she’s a loser.

Girlyn Miguel: Why is SVG’s first woman deputy prime minister in the “loser” column? Because she ran against a dimwit candidate and barely beat him in an NDP stronghold.

Sure, the newspaper will tell you that she beat him by 568 votes, which was the 4th-largest ULP margin of victory. But Girlyn’s margin of victory declined by a whopping 689 votes from the previous election, and she lost 173 votes from her 2005 vote total. No other ULP candidate on the mainland lost more than 77 votes from the previous election total.

Those kinda numbers speak of rapidly declining personal popularity. Stick a fork in her, she’s done as a candidate.

Luke Browne: During the campaign, Luke supplanted Saboto as the ULP’s golden child. The NDP took him to court. Vynette ambushed him on radio. NDP bloggers attacked him. All those mothers and aunties in the ULP embraced him. On election night, as the results were coming in, everyone was asking: “is Luke beating Arnhim”?

Not even close.

The conventional wisdom on Luke was that he’d get more votes than Julian in East Kingstown, particularly among the suburbanites of Cane Garden, and that his “non-Julian-ness” alone would make the race tighter. Add to the Rhodes Scholar bit, the youth, the good looks, the charm, the work ethic. . . he was the long shout that every ULP supporter was praying for.

Turns out, Julian Francis wasn’t the reason ULP lost East Kingstown. Arnhim Eustace is the reason ULP lost East Kingstown. Luke actually got LESS votes that the evil Julian Francis got in 2005. And the promised Cane Garden “bounce” was a mere 26 votes. And every one of those 26 votes – and more – were lost in Sion Hill.

Luke worked hard, but not smart. He had trouble connecting to the man on the street. And he couldn’t overcome three major issues: (1) people in EK don’t like his dad; (2) he was too young/new for some people; and (3) Kingstowners thought NDP was gonna win the election, so they voted for the guy who they figured would be Prime Minister.

Luke isn’t dead politically. He’s made a name for himself. His best bet now is that Leacock manages to force Arnhim into a premature retirement. If Arnhim steps down from the NDP leadership and quits his seat, you gotta like Luke’s chances to win a by-election.

“Book smarts”: Lets compare last year’s parliament to this one. You’ve lost two medical doctors, a lawyer, and three masters degrees. In the 2010 elections three lawyers got their asses handed to them. A Rhodes Scholar was sent packing. And a known pedophile is in parliament (OK, that last one isn’t related to schooling, but still).

The parliament, and the government’s cabinet, have suffered from “brain drain.” On paper, things seemed to have dumbed-down a notch. But I don’t think it’s a bad thing at all. There are many more perspectives and viewpoints in this parliament. And I think that a lot of those university-educated ministers on the ULP side were pretty damn lazy and aloof. Coming from Milton Cato’s 8-lawyer cabinet, this parliament is a humungous improvement.

Women: Women, to use Gonsalves’ phrase, “owned de campaign.” Especially on the ULP side. Men, unfortunately, are owning de government. I think this is the first time under Gonsalves that he has not named at least one woman to the Senate. I understand that Fife is political toxic waste, and that Forde is reportedly with child. But jeez, some estrogen would have been nice (Girlyn and the attorney general are so old that they don’t have any more estrogen than I do).

Women were pigeonholed into some unflattering stereotypes in this election: windbag. . . accuser. . . voting cattle. Gotta change. Gotta change now.

Negative Campaigning: It didn’t work. 10 years of Lynch didn’t work. A decade of Ralph-bashing didn’t work. Lies, slander, accusations and commess didn’t work.

Let’s put it to bed, shall we? I hope that the postmortems of both parties conclude that the talk-radio scandalmongering is a waste of time. I hope they get a clue. And a plan. And a vision for SVG. Let’s see how THAT works, for a change.

The NDP: This was their election to win or lose. And they lost it. They never made the transition from raucous opposition to showing that they were ready to govern. They botched their positions on the airport and on education. Their manifesto was a joke. They were not united. And they lost more momentum in 12 months than anyone not named Barack Obama.

The NDP blew it. And they have stuck themselves in opposition for another 5-10 years.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN, VINCY NOASTRADAMUS?

OK. First off, this blog is too damn long already. So the fun analysis and prediction bit will come in the coming weeks/months. But lemme sketch it out for you:

The NDP is in trouble.

See, on one hand, I don’t believe in 4th terms. Hardly ever happens in the Caribbean. So the NDP has history on its side. The ULP formed government after a brief tenure as an 8-7 opposition, so the NDP has history on its side again. They could do it. They SHOULD do it.

But. . .

BUT. . .

They got problems.

Problem #1 is that in the next elections, the ULP already has 6 sure seats: North Central Windward, South Central Windward, South Windward, Marriaqua, East St. George and West St. George.

The NDP has 3-4: North and South Grenadines, West Kingstown, and maybe Central Kingstown (if Leacock is then leader of the party).

The next election would be fought in 5 constituencies only: North Windward, East Kingstown, South Leeward, Central Leeward, and North Leeward. And the NDP would have to win 4 of those 5.

Why do I say that? Swings baby, swings.

The average mainland seat swung 300 votes in 2010. That was when everything was against the ULP. Lets say that the average swing somehow gets up to 400 votes per constituency in the next election. Every seat with a greater than 400-vote margin of victory is therefore a “safe” seat in the next election. If you check our history, that pretty much holds up (with a few exceptional exceptions).

ULP only won 8 seats, but they won 6 of those 8 by over 400 votes.

NDP won 7 seats, but three of those were by under 400 votes.

Those 5 are your marginals. And the ULP is in better shape there.

Problem#2 is speculative: The global economy should be stronger. The airport should be complete. The hospital in Georgetown should be done. Kids should have their laptops. In other words, the environment may not be so bad for the ULP as it was this time. The NDP, on the other hand, may be in flux. If they can reinvent themselves in the next 2 years, great. If Arnhim is still hanging on, and Leacock is still trying to supplant him, it won’t end well.

Problem #3 is those 17 constituencies. NDP managed to stall the creation of two extra constituencies using the courts. But that stalling won’t last another 5 years. Parliament has already decreed that there will be two new constituencies. Its gonna happen.

Now, the logical place for the two constituencies, based on demographics, are (1) between East St. George, West St. George and East Kingstown; and (2) between South Leeward, Central Leeward and West Kingstown. Guess what? The St. George’s seat is an almost automatic ULP seat. And any leeward seat that doesn’t include Campden Park is a pretty solid ULP seat too.

So if the ULP stands still, and does nothing other than let parliament’s law get enacted, their slim 8-7 majority is actually a 10-7 majority!! The NDP doesn’t need to win one more seat in the next election, they need to win two.

 

* * *

 

Check the blog in a few for a fuller break-down of the data, and what Vincy Nostradamus thinks it all means. Watch the trick of predicting an election result a full term in advance...

NDP math: 0 plans + 1 fresh face = >8 seats?

Political campaigns, I thought, ran on a pretty predictable cycle in the Caribbean:
 

1. A new team of fresh faces and big ideas challenges the stodgy, tired incumbents, who have been in power for 10-15 years  
2. The new team makes a number of big promises about its plans – what it will do, what it will change, how it will lead us to the promised land  
3. The new team is swept to power on the basis of its plans and promises, and the dissatisfaction/familiarity/boredom with the incumbents  
4. The new team serves 10-15 years, each year worse than the one that came before it  
5. Over those 10-15 years, the out-of-power party refreshes itself, and a new set of young turks come to the fore, full of fresh energy and ideas   
6. Return to step 1

That’s pretty much been the norm in Caribbean politics. And that aint necessarily a bad thing, either. But this year, this election in SVG, is totally different. I just can’t figure it out.

Why do I say that? Well, if you agree with my “cycle” above, you’ll see that the opposition needs 2 things on their side: plans, and freshness. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what they DON’T have.

We have two weeks to go ‘till Election Day. 13 days. And the NDP has yet to lay out any plan or coherent vision for the country.

All I’ve heard (and I’ve been listening) is:

     “you tear down our poster!”
     “you not distributing hurricane relief fairly!”
     “you full of [liars/thieves/communists/rapists/victimizers/etc.]!”
     “you registered three voters from central Kingstown in east Kingstown instead!”
     “you did everything wrong! EVERYTHING!”
     “We hate Ralph Gonsalves!”
     “No!”
     “Enough! No More!”
     “Hugo Chavez! Cuba! Iran!”
     “Pastor gonna Christen his pickney first!”

[Oh! You can add to this list some vague words about a “Meritocracy” from Linton Lewis and an abstract wish for “Vincentians not to go to bed hungry” from Leacock.]

Ohh-kayy, then. So, allow me to paraphrase the core of the NDP election message, to date: “elect us, and we promise a country where campaign posters will remain up and all voters will be registered where they reside. We will discontinue everything that the previous administration has done or is doing. We will take care of our supporters before anyone else, but among our own supporters there will be a meritocracy and fairly distributed relief supplies. We will ensure that no Vincentian goes to bed hungry. Just like Chatoyer is our 1st National Hero, we will make Ralph Gonsalves our 1st National Villain. Vote NDP.”

There’s gotta be more, right?

. . . right?

Thirteen days to go, and no manifesto from the NDP. Granted, no manifesto from the ULP either, but they’re running on their record, not their promises. And Ralph has also printed a bunch of mini-manifestos as newspaper inserts on ULP’s plans for health, education, poverty reduction, etc. (What? You didn’t read any of them? Now whose fault is that?)

So. NDP is not exactly setting the world on fire in the “plans” department. What about “freshness”?

Well, fresh aint exactly what you’d call these guys either. Its fair to say most of them have passed their sell-by dates. Almost all of the candidates date back to the NDP’s 2001 defeat, and some, like Burton Williams, go back even further. Basically, as new NDP faces, you have Vynette, and the Guy-They-Picked-To-Go-Against-Ralph-After-Dinky-And-Margaret-Fell-Through.

So, basically, sans Vinny-Vee and the sacrificial lamb, NDP is running a bunch of old men, most of whom were rejected the last two times they went to the polls. Arnhim is older than Ralph, and Ralph aint no spring chicken.

Hmmmmm. . . that’s an interesting strategy.

Incredibly, (and unforgivably, if you’re an NDP supporter), it’s the incumbent party that’s fresher and more forward-looking. Eight of the 13 mainland seats have new ULP faces, most of them young. Seven of those eight new faces come in seats that the ULP won in the last election.

Plans-wise, like I said, the ULP is winning this battle too. They have announced the dates that their “regular” manifesto and “youth” manifesto will be published. They’ve put booklets in the paper. They’ve explained their record, which is pretty solid. And while they’ve been a bit too willing to wallow in the mud with the NDP, their public meetings have generally been more substantive than the opposition’s (especially if Ralph, Luke, Jerrol, Saboto or Ces are speaking).

So, if you’re the NDP, the question is: how do you win if you’re being out-hustled in the vision department and outshone by fresher faces?

The answer is: you don’t. You just don’t.

I believe that the cycle at the start of this posting accurately describes almost every change of power in the Caribbean in the last 30+ years, from Jamaica to Barbados to TnT. Opposition parties win elections when they have fresher faces and better plans. The NDP has neither.

So I think this isn’t their year. I think they’ll lose. I think Arnhim will be ousted as leader after 3 consecutive defeats. And I think that there will be upheaval, and a bunch of new faces will come to the fore of the NDP [Anesia Baptiste, Grant Connell, Kenton Chance, Jomo Thomas(?) and some brilliant young person(s) we haven't thought of yet]. Mitchell, Lynch, Burton, Horne, etc. will fade away. The new faces will bring with them new ideas. The new look NDP will have a better chance in 2015 than the old guard NDP has in 2010.

And my “cycle” will remain a valid and useful political tool. Can we call it the VP Theory of Cyclical Caribbean Incumbency? Coming soon to a UWI seminar near you!

Back for the Silly Season

"Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in" - Michael Corleone, Godfather III

It's been, what? eight months?

See, the problem for me is that I love politics. But in SVG, we aren't exactly savvy practitioners of the dark art of politics. Oh, we have lots of commess. Lots of absolutely unfounded opinions. And lots of... for want of a better word... bullshit.

But in terms of ideas, reasoned debate, or even some juicy backroom intrigue, being a political junkie in SVG is kinda like being Tiger Woods in a room full of Black women: not much to hold your interest, and certainly nothing you were hoping to see.

The burst of politics and issues that surrounded the Referendum campaign had me engaged for a bit, but by January, we were back to same ole' same ole from both sides. When EG Lynch is the most politically influential figure in your society... (I don't know how to finish that statement without sounding a bit too superior and elitist, so I'll let it hang).

So, I got bored. I tuned out. I started watching Sunday Morning talk shows about USA politics (Guess what? They're more backward than we are!). I got my fix from various online magazines. Life was good.

Like Michael Corleone, I thought I was out. But I wasn't counting on the political silly season. Boundaries Commissions! Campaign finance! Internal party squabbling on candidate selection! Lies! Rumours!

Ideas? not yet. But hope springs eternal.

I'm back. Maybe. At least until elections. I think :)

Arnhim, the Estimates, and Haiti

This will be a brief post. I hope to do a fuller vincypatriot analysis of the Estimates & Budget when its all over. But I want to post this while I'm still angry about it.

According to Kenton Chance's always-excellent "I-Witness News" Blog (Tell me again why SVG can't have a daily newspaper?), Leader of the Opposition Arnhim Eustace had this little nugget to offer on the Government's Budget Estimates:

“I regard these estimates something like a pack of cards from which a building in built. In terms of revenue, it is not there and it will collapse much like the buildings in Haiti.”

Excuse me... WHAT?!?

(See the full article here: "Estimates will crumble like Haiti buildings: St. Vincent opposition leader" An earlier article on the Estimates is here: "St. Vincent PM unveils EC$913M budget.")

On what planet is this an appropriate comment? "Too soon" does not even begin to capture the inappropriateness of that statement. Disagree with the estimates all you want. It's your job, to some degree. And you may even have valid points and disagreements. But how the HELL can you compare budget estimates in any way to what is still happening in Haiti?

No one knows for sure the death toll to date, but we're talking in the neighbourhood of 200,000 (See: "'Reasonable assumption' that nearly 200,000 dead after Haiti earthquake: U.S. general"). That's more than every citizen of SVG, plus the population of Antigua & Barbuda (or Dominica, if you like). Up to today, aa week after the 1st quake, aftershocks measuring 6.1 were still hitting the country ("Strong aftershock rattles Haitians"). Corpses are still being pulled from the rubble. I myself have Haitian friends that I have not heard from, and have no idea if they're dead or alive. 

I find Eustace's comments profoundly, appalling, insulting and unconscionable. 

Show a little compassion for your Caribbean neighbours and the scale of the human tragedy. The whole world is captivated, expressing condolences, and trying to help. The assistance pledged and money required far outstrips SVG's little budgetary drama. It is a Caribbean catastrophe unparalleled in modern history. It is still unfolding. And Eustace thinks he can use it to score cheap political points???

I wonder how people would have responded 9 years ago (or even today), if Eustace had said "In terms of revenue, it is not there and it will collapse much like the Twin Towers on 9/11." How quickly would we have been calling for his head?

He must apologise. I am genuinely appalled at his insensitivity.

Cabinet Shuffle, Phase 1

It looks like the PM has decided that a one-time, wholesale, Cabinet reshuffle will create too much upheaval in his election year government, so he’s going to do it in small bites. Phase 1 was relatively mild, but nonetheless told many stories about the internal workings of the ULP Government as it approaches the 2010 election season. Let’s take a look, shall we?

Who’s In:

Michelle Fife (new Senator and Parliamentary Secretary)

Who’s Out:

Richard Williams (former Senator)

Who’s Demoted:

Julian Francis (former Minister of Housing)

Conrad Sayers (former Minister of State)

Who’s Promoted:

Sabato Caesar (new Minister of Housing)

Who’s Soon-To-Be-Out

Rochelle Forde (Senator and Deputy Speaker of the House)

Here’s my take on what it all means:

Story #1 – The Rise of Fife: The first big story is the almost overnight emergence of Michelle Fife as an apparent ULP candidate in 2010.  Ms. Fife is a 20something year old lawyer who was born in England to Vincentian parents and was once a Miss SVG Beauty Queen “many years and many pounds ago” (her words, not mine). She made a little splash during the referendum campaign as the obligatory “young female pit bull” role that the NDP filled with the Vynette Frederick/Anesia Baptiste combo. Before that, to the best of my knowledge, she was only known in religious circles as a pious and passionate young preacher, who regularly appears on Star FM’s Sunday morning religious programming. She is also a Crown Counsel at the Attorney General’s Chambers.

Sources say that Rene Baptiste, the incumbent in West Kingstown (and the incumbent overweight female lawyer in the ULP) has been showing Michelle around to her constituents, so it seems like the ULP plans on running her there. What this means for Ambassador Ellsworth John, who has been mounting a not-so-quiet campaign to be the West Kingstown candidate, remains to be seen.

The ULP won West Kingstown last election by a handful of votes, and “no” beat “yes” in the referendum there by over 1,000. Whether a young, inexperienced candidate can turn it around is a bit of a gamble from the ULP camp. They’ll have a lot of ground to make up in convincing West Kingstowners that Michelle Fife is worth their vote. Of course, the NDP’s declared candidate, Daniel Cummings, is probably the opposition’s least attractive offering – a bitter, angry man with a long list of vendettas, a short list of ideas, and no real affection from constituents. Political biases aside, I am firmly opposed to angry arrogant men taking office. They only get angrier and arrogant-er as the years go by. That's never good for their constituents.

Story #2 – The Fall of Francis: To hear Ralph tell it, removing Julian from the Ministry of Housing was designed to free him up to manage the ULP down the stretch run. Francis is a legendary organiser and mobiliser of the party faithful, so the Comrade’s explanation may be true. The ULP certainly needs a full-time manager of party affairs at this critical time. But to me, this sounds like more like Julian’s latest demotion. Last election, Julian Francis was ULP party chairman, Minister of Works, a senator, and a candidate for East Kingstown. Since then, he’s lost the ministry of works, lost the ministry of housing, lost his Ministerial salary, lost his election in East Kingstown, and organised the government’s losing effort in the Referendum.

Maybe he’s being asked to focus on his core strengths. But it smells like punishment. Francis, for all his abrasive demeanor, was one of the hardest-working Ministers in government. Housing and Infrastructure have been two of the ULP’s major successes in government. Of all the people who need to go, why him?

And if you’re freeing him up to manage the party’s reelection efforts, why keep him in the senate at all? Why not simply put him to run the party?

All that being said, a focused Francis is a major strategic bonus to the ULP. If he is focused, rather than disgruntled, he'll whip the party machinery into fighting shape in time for the silly season.

Story #3 – Youth Movement, Redux: The ULP’s first youth movement in Parliament was something of a flop. When the government took power, it announced, to much well-deserved acclaim, the nomination of 3 young people to the Senate – Richard Williams, Ronnie Marks, and Rochelle Forde. It was presumed at the time that the “3 Rs” were earmarked for representative politics in the next elections, presumably in West St. George, East St. George, and Marriaqua.

Alas, Ronnie and Richard are now gone, and Rochelle is soon to go. None of them appear to be in the government’s 2010 election plans.

Now, I think they all did pretty well as senators. When I tuned in to debates, they all made sense, and Richard Williams was sometimes particularly good. Rochelle Forde also had some sparkling moments. But, as far as their secondary role as the party’s next generation of candidates, they flamed out.

The ULP has dipped back into its inexhaustible reserves of bright young people to now name Michelle Fife and Saboto Caesar (How many young lawyers do the ULP plan on naming to the Senate anyway? Since 2001, we’ve had Ronnie, Richard, Rochelle, Saboto and Michelle. Then we have Ralph and Rene as elected lawyers on the ULP side and Godwin Friday on the NDP side. Don’t forget Linton Lewis as a NDP candidate too. Jeez.)

Saboto is clearly gonna be a candidate. And it doesn’t make sense to name Michelle now unless she’s gonna be one too. That’s two under-30 candidates on the ballot so far for the ULP, and one (Vynette Fredrick) for the NDP. Young Hans King seems to be set as a ULP candidate in East Kingstown as well. So the youth movement continues, but the cast of characters has changed.

Vynette is an unelectable windbag, Michelle is a virtual unknown, Hans is running against the Leader of the Opposition, and Saboto’s stronghold constituency voted “no” by a 195 vote margin in the Referendum. I hope their appearances on the national scene aren’t as brief as Ronnie, Richard and Rochelle. And I hope that the “3 Rs” stay in the mix for future elections as not-so-young political veterans. They are bright and disciplined people who could make a contribution.

Story #4 – The Mystery Senator: Comrade says that Rochelle is being eased out of the Senate in coming months for a soon-to-be-announced individual who had some last minute business to wrap up. Who is this guy/gal? The reliable sources are silent. In a country where there are no secrets, this one is currently under wraps.

But I don’t think this is about wrapping up business. I think this is more of the incremental approach that the ULP is taking to its reshuffle. Dripping out a few names at a time has the benefit of being less jarring to observers. There are those who think a jarring signal should have been sent, and others who think that such a signal would’ve looked like panic. Clearly, we’re gonna get a couple new names every 8-10 weeks.

Story #5 – Late Year Elections: In case you didn’t already know, it doesn’t look like the ULP is calling an election any time soon. In dragging out the reshuffle over the next few months, it seems obvious that Comrade has a 12-month calendar in mind, not a surprise snap election plan. He called his 2005 elections in December and the Referendum vote in November. Look for the next poll around those same months.

Story #6 – Fresh vs. Stale, or Green vs. Ripe?: It seems from this initial move that the ULP is going to run a slate dominated by first-time candidates, many of them young, in the next elections. The NDP, on the other hand, is largely going with old party stalwarts who’ve run (and lost) in the past. I have no idea how the old/new image is gonna play out over the course of the elections. But it’ll be interesting…