Cabinet Shuffle, Phase 1

It looks like the PM has decided that a one-time, wholesale, Cabinet reshuffle will create too much upheaval in his election year government, so he’s going to do it in small bites. Phase 1 was relatively mild, but nonetheless told many stories about the internal workings of the ULP Government as it approaches the 2010 election season. Let’s take a look, shall we?

Who’s In:

Michelle Fife (new Senator and Parliamentary Secretary)

Who’s Out:

Richard Williams (former Senator)

Who’s Demoted:

Julian Francis (former Minister of Housing)

Conrad Sayers (former Minister of State)

Who’s Promoted:

Sabato Caesar (new Minister of Housing)

Who’s Soon-To-Be-Out

Rochelle Forde (Senator and Deputy Speaker of the House)

Here’s my take on what it all means:

Story #1 – The Rise of Fife: The first big story is the almost overnight emergence of Michelle Fife as an apparent ULP candidate in 2010.  Ms. Fife is a 20something year old lawyer who was born in England to Vincentian parents and was once a Miss SVG Beauty Queen “many years and many pounds ago” (her words, not mine). She made a little splash during the referendum campaign as the obligatory “young female pit bull” role that the NDP filled with the Vynette Frederick/Anesia Baptiste combo. Before that, to the best of my knowledge, she was only known in religious circles as a pious and passionate young preacher, who regularly appears on Star FM’s Sunday morning religious programming. She is also a Crown Counsel at the Attorney General’s Chambers.

Sources say that Rene Baptiste, the incumbent in West Kingstown (and the incumbent overweight female lawyer in the ULP) has been showing Michelle around to her constituents, so it seems like the ULP plans on running her there. What this means for Ambassador Ellsworth John, who has been mounting a not-so-quiet campaign to be the West Kingstown candidate, remains to be seen.

The ULP won West Kingstown last election by a handful of votes, and “no” beat “yes” in the referendum there by over 1,000. Whether a young, inexperienced candidate can turn it around is a bit of a gamble from the ULP camp. They’ll have a lot of ground to make up in convincing West Kingstowners that Michelle Fife is worth their vote. Of course, the NDP’s declared candidate, Daniel Cummings, is probably the opposition’s least attractive offering – a bitter, angry man with a long list of vendettas, a short list of ideas, and no real affection from constituents. Political biases aside, I am firmly opposed to angry arrogant men taking office. They only get angrier and arrogant-er as the years go by. That's never good for their constituents.

Story #2 – The Fall of Francis: To hear Ralph tell it, removing Julian from the Ministry of Housing was designed to free him up to manage the ULP down the stretch run. Francis is a legendary organiser and mobiliser of the party faithful, so the Comrade’s explanation may be true. The ULP certainly needs a full-time manager of party affairs at this critical time. But to me, this sounds like more like Julian’s latest demotion. Last election, Julian Francis was ULP party chairman, Minister of Works, a senator, and a candidate for East Kingstown. Since then, he’s lost the ministry of works, lost the ministry of housing, lost his Ministerial salary, lost his election in East Kingstown, and organised the government’s losing effort in the Referendum.

Maybe he’s being asked to focus on his core strengths. But it smells like punishment. Francis, for all his abrasive demeanor, was one of the hardest-working Ministers in government. Housing and Infrastructure have been two of the ULP’s major successes in government. Of all the people who need to go, why him?

And if you’re freeing him up to manage the party’s reelection efforts, why keep him in the senate at all? Why not simply put him to run the party?

All that being said, a focused Francis is a major strategic bonus to the ULP. If he is focused, rather than disgruntled, he'll whip the party machinery into fighting shape in time for the silly season.

Story #3 – Youth Movement, Redux: The ULP’s first youth movement in Parliament was something of a flop. When the government took power, it announced, to much well-deserved acclaim, the nomination of 3 young people to the Senate – Richard Williams, Ronnie Marks, and Rochelle Forde. It was presumed at the time that the “3 Rs” were earmarked for representative politics in the next elections, presumably in West St. George, East St. George, and Marriaqua.

Alas, Ronnie and Richard are now gone, and Rochelle is soon to go. None of them appear to be in the government’s 2010 election plans.

Now, I think they all did pretty well as senators. When I tuned in to debates, they all made sense, and Richard Williams was sometimes particularly good. Rochelle Forde also had some sparkling moments. But, as far as their secondary role as the party’s next generation of candidates, they flamed out.

The ULP has dipped back into its inexhaustible reserves of bright young people to now name Michelle Fife and Saboto Caesar (How many young lawyers do the ULP plan on naming to the Senate anyway? Since 2001, we’ve had Ronnie, Richard, Rochelle, Saboto and Michelle. Then we have Ralph and Rene as elected lawyers on the ULP side and Godwin Friday on the NDP side. Don’t forget Linton Lewis as a NDP candidate too. Jeez.)

Saboto is clearly gonna be a candidate. And it doesn’t make sense to name Michelle now unless she’s gonna be one too. That’s two under-30 candidates on the ballot so far for the ULP, and one (Vynette Fredrick) for the NDP. Young Hans King seems to be set as a ULP candidate in East Kingstown as well. So the youth movement continues, but the cast of characters has changed.

Vynette is an unelectable windbag, Michelle is a virtual unknown, Hans is running against the Leader of the Opposition, and Saboto’s stronghold constituency voted “no” by a 195 vote margin in the Referendum. I hope their appearances on the national scene aren’t as brief as Ronnie, Richard and Rochelle. And I hope that the “3 Rs” stay in the mix for future elections as not-so-young political veterans. They are bright and disciplined people who could make a contribution.

Story #4 – The Mystery Senator: Comrade says that Rochelle is being eased out of the Senate in coming months for a soon-to-be-announced individual who had some last minute business to wrap up. Who is this guy/gal? The reliable sources are silent. In a country where there are no secrets, this one is currently under wraps.

But I don’t think this is about wrapping up business. I think this is more of the incremental approach that the ULP is taking to its reshuffle. Dripping out a few names at a time has the benefit of being less jarring to observers. There are those who think a jarring signal should have been sent, and others who think that such a signal would’ve looked like panic. Clearly, we’re gonna get a couple new names every 8-10 weeks.

Story #5 – Late Year Elections: In case you didn’t already know, it doesn’t look like the ULP is calling an election any time soon. In dragging out the reshuffle over the next few months, it seems obvious that Comrade has a 12-month calendar in mind, not a surprise snap election plan. He called his 2005 elections in December and the Referendum vote in November. Look for the next poll around those same months.

Story #6 – Fresh vs. Stale, or Green vs. Ripe?: It seems from this initial move that the ULP is going to run a slate dominated by first-time candidates, many of them young, in the next elections. The NDP, on the other hand, is largely going with old party stalwarts who’ve run (and lost) in the past. I have no idea how the old/new image is gonna play out over the course of the elections. But it’ll be interesting…